Pineda for Montero: Yankees Taking a Huge Risk

As you probably already know, last week, the Yankees and Mariners engaged in a trade which sent highly coveted prospect Jesus Montero to Seattle in exchange for Michael Pineda.  The trade sent shock waves through the baseball world for two reasons; it went against the assumed perception that Montero was off limits in any and all trade talks (he was reportedly off-limits when Roy Halladay was being shopped) and it broke the number one rule that GM's learn in GM school, which says that you don't trade a young starting pitcher who is under control for any reason.  So determining who "wins" in this trade is very hard but I'll give you some of my thoughts on why I think the Yankees might have bought a little too high for Pineda (and given up Montero, too soon).

Here and now... the upside for the Yankees


On the surface, it seems like this will be a great trade for the Yankees as they will get a pitcher that can have an immediate impact.  Pineda will have the opportunity to propel the Yankees rotation to a place that it hasn't been in quite a few years.  Pineda burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2011 and took the MLB world by storm.  Over the first half of his 2011 rookie season, he boasted a 3.03 ERA to go along with 113 strikeouts in 113 innings and a WHIP of 1.035.  Those numbers would be impressive for any pitcher, let alone a 22 year-old rookie.  The 6'7" right hander kept hitters at bay with a brilliant mid to upper 90's fastball (he boasted the highest average fastball in the big leagues in 2011) and a solid slider.

The Yankees are getting a big pitcher with great upside who will have the opportunity to learn from another big pitcher with tremendous talent and a Cy  under his belt (CC Sabathia, of course).  If Michael Pineda doesn't get any better than he was in 2011, they're almost surely getting a decent middle of the rotation pitcher who is capable of beating anyone on any given day.  But the true value in this deal is the fact that Pineda's upside rivals that of any other pitcher in baseball.

The But... cause for concern

Pineda's fastball/slider combination proved to be very effective over the first half of the season but as the season wore on and the scouting report got thicker, his numbers normalized, a bit.  His second half ERA was 5.12 with a WHIP of 1.224.  Maybe the decline was due to fatigue or maybe it was the fact that teams had learned how to catch up with his fastball; whatever it was, it's clear that Pineda was not as dominant in the second half as he fell out of the Rookie of the Year race.  

There are three things that should concern the Yankees.  First, Pineda doesn't change speeds as well as he should (doesn't have confidence throwing his change up and his slider has proven to be a bit "hard" at times).  The result thus far has been a lot of fly balls.  In fact, he ranked 87th among 94 qualifying starting pitchers in groundball percentage (only 36.3% of balls hit were ground balls).  He also ranked 85th in BABIP, which indicates that he may have been the recipient of some good luck (or a pitcher friendly ballpark), which brings me to my next point.

Pineda surely benefited from playing his home games at Safeco, a notorious "pitcher friendly" ballpark and it's not a stretch to say that the move to the new homer-friendly Yankee Stadium might be a tough one for the young right hander.  You don't need to look much further than Pineda's home and away splits - his ERA at home was 2.92 compared to 4.40 on the road.  The power alley in right field at Yankee Stadium is one of the friendliest in the game for left handed hitters (lefties hit .237 off of Pineda, compared to .184 by righties) so you can bet the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles will be lefty heavy when Pineda is on the mound.

And lastly, Pineda's velocity decreased as the season went on and he showed some inconsistency with his slider.  Early in the season, his average fastball was right around 94 MPH.  By the end of his season, it was sitting around 91.  That coupled with the fact that Pineda only pitched 47 innings in 2009 due to elbow soreness, leads me to wonder how durable the big man will be.

Sellers Remorse... Jesus Montero appears to be the real deal

Montero was rated among the top 5 prospects in all of baseball by Baseball America in each of the past two seasons.  He has boasted a triple slash line of .308/.366/.501 over five minor league seasons and his home run totals have been trending up since the Venezuelan prospect joined the Yankees organization in 2006.  Montero appears to be an immediate impact "can't miss" hitting prospect.  It still remains to be seen whether he has what it takes to be an every day catcher at the big league level but given Jesus' tremendous hitting ability, it's safe to say that he'll be an impact player no matter where he winds up (whether it's at 1B or C).  In a short stint with the big league club at the end of the 2011 season, Montero was absolutely tremendous.  He posted a .996 OPS in 69 plate appearances.  In his two postseason at bats, Montero collected two hits, scored a run and drove in a run.  Small sample size, for sure, but that raw hitting ability is the main reason why the Yankees were so hesitant to give up Jesus Montero for anything in previous discussions and why they could be faced with some seller's remorse a few years down the road when this kid is raking.

Jorge Posada Retires: Great Player but Not Hall Worthy

Long-time Yankee catcher, Jorge Posada, announced his retirement from baseball yesterday.  A seventeen year veteran, the five-time all-star will hang them up widely regarded as one of the greatest players in Yankee history. It's safe to say that Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey are still the top two catchers in franchise history, however, Posada's intangibles makes him an important figure in Yankee lore.  He personified what the Yankees were about; a professional in every facet of the game.  He was a solid offensive catcher, winning five Silver Sluggers and his .848 career OPS is actually higher than Berra's.  Besides his offensive prowess, Posada was a great leader on and off the field.  He managed his staff well and was an integral part in a bevy of successful Yankee teams.  In all, Posada's teams made the postseason 15 out of his 17 professional seasons, winning four World Series rings in the process.  Posada was a good player for a long-time and I would be shocked if he didn't remain around the game for years to come as a manager or bench coach.

Despite all of that high (deserved) praise, I'm sort of shocked to hear all of the chatter supporting Posada's eventual Hall of Fame candidacy.  To be frank, I just don't see it.  Because he's a catcher and because he played in the steroid era, it would be safe to assume that he could receive a little extra consideration but the biggest gripe that I have with Jorge Posada is Javy Lopez.  

Javy Lopez was up for Hall of Fame consideration for the first time this year.  In his first year of eligibility, Lopez fell well shy of the 5% required to remain on the ballot and thus will no longer be on the ballot moving forward.  When you compare the numbers, Lopez had a higher career batting average, he averaged more HR per 162 than Jorge (and fell only 15 HR shy of Jorge's cumulative HR total despite playing 2 fewer seasons), he was more successful in the postseason (hit 10 HR in 15 postseason series compared to Jorge hitting 10 in 15; he also had a higher triple slash line in the postseason) and from what I saw, Javy was a better defensive catcher (had a higher career fielding percentage, better range and caught some of the greatest pitchers of this generation with the Braves).  To make my point clear, in no way am I insinuating that Javy Lopez belongs in Cooperstown but given the facts, I don't see how you make the leap from Javy Lopez earning 0.2% support to Jorge Posada being a Hall of Famer.  One might assume that the writers connected their own dots with Javy to explain his surprisingly low Hall of Fame support.  Although Lopez was never formally implicated as a PED-user, he did make some bizarre comments about a race car driver using "nitro" to help win races.  He subsequently hit 43 HR in a contract year, 2003 at the age of 32, besting his previous career high of 34, which came five years earlier.  I don't know if that is the case.  I just think that the writers looked at the body of work and said that Javy Lopez, the three-time all-star, was just not in the same class as the thirteen other catchers enshrined in Cooperstown, and I agree with that.  And if you agree with that, it's hard to not to come to the same conclusion regarding Jorge Posada.    

Breakdown of Pitching Staff Contenders

There are just about 40 games to go in the 2011 season, and a playoff picture is starting to take shape. Currently, there are only three tightly contested divisions in baseball - the NL West, The AL East, and the AL Central. In all liklihood, 2nd place in the AL East is taking the Wild Card. All other division leaders hold at least 6 game lead at this point, although nothing is a given just ask my Mets. Given the state of the pennant races, we focus on pitching staffs in this breakdown, and we couldn't agree on everything. These are my picks, and I'll tell you the places my colleagues and I agreed upon. Starting with the American League.

5. Cleveland Indians

Standouts - Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin
Inconsistent - Ubaldo Jimenez, Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco

The Tribe are in the thick of a pennant race in the Central, and NOBODY would have picked that at the start of the season. They've benefited from solid play from hitters and better than average pitching. They also have benefited from a relatively weak division (they'd be 5th in AL East and 3rd in AL West). We were in agreement that the Indians staff is weakest among playoff contenders. They made a great trade to grab Jimenez. The fire-balling righty can look like the greatest pitcher of his generation on some days, and look terrible on others. The Indians staff is largley untested in a stretch run situation, let alone playoffs. Inexperience could be a detriment to their run.

DEREK JETER: FIRST YANKEE TO AMASS 3,000 HITS

Not Babe Ruth.  Not Mickey Mantle.  Not Yogi Berra.  Not Lou Gehrig.  Not Joe DiMaggio.

Derek Jeter, the Captain, became the first player in Yankee history to reach the 3,000 hit plateau today against the Rays.  It is hard to believe that the Yankees, the most storied franchise in baseball history, did not have a member in one of baseball's most elite clubs but it is very fitting that Jeter was the one to do it.  In typical Jeter fashion, he reached the mark in style, belting a home run off of David Price in the third inning, one of five hits on the day for Derek, including the game winning hit in the bottom of the 8th, igniting "DEREK JETER" chants from the Yankee crowd (note: Jeter became only the second player in MLB history to have a five hit day in his 3,000 hit game- Craig Biggio the other). 

Jeter became the 28th player in baseball history to reach 3,000 hits and at 37 years and 13 days old, he is also the fourth youngest to reach the magical number (8 days younger than Pete Rose was when he reached that mark).

It is also interesting to note that Jeter is only the second player in baseball history to hit a home run to reach 3,000 hits (Wade Boggs is the other).

100% Jeterian... congratulations Derek.

HOF Debate - Mike Mussina

Piggy-backing off of the Schilling debate, today we will look at Mike Mussina and debate whether Moose is worthy of enshrinement.

Pro - OCP

Knee-jerk, Mike Mussina was a very good pitcher but Hall worthy?  His name was the answer to a trivia question that made my head spin, which is why this debate came up here.  It took a lot for me to convince myself that he belongs but there are some statistical anomales that exist which say that he does. 

Consider this, if Moose does not make it into the Hall of Fame, he will be the first pitcher with 100 more wins than losses not enshrined.  There are only six pitchers in the history of baseball with 17 or more seasons of 10 wins or more: Greg Maddux, Warren Spahn, Cy Young, Don Sutton, Steve Carlton and Mike Mussina.  There are only five pitchers in the history of baseball with at least 270 wins and a winning percentage greater than .638 and four out of the five are already enshrined.  The other is, of course, Mike Mussina. 

Ted Williams: Wins Triple Crown...Loses MVP

One of the more difficult feats to achieve in baseball is the batting Triple Crown. Leading the league in home runs, runs batted in, and batting average in the same season serves as a testament of what it means to be a truly great hitter. In recent years, a few players, including Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, and Manny Ramirez have led these categories in different seasons. Not since Carl Yazstrzemski, back in 1967, has anyone accomplished it during the same season.

Ted Williams won the Triple Crown twice in 1942 and 1947 joining only Rogers Hornsby as the only other two time winner. Apart from the rarity of these feats, what is more remarkable is the fact that Williams didn't win the MVP in either campaign. That sounds almost too incredible to believe. It wasn't unprecedented for a Triple Crown winner to not win the MVP the same season. Prior to 1942, it had happened twice. In 1922, Hornsby won the Triple Crown, however no MVP award was given that year. Also in 1933, Lou Gehrig lost the MVP to pitcher Carl Hubbell despite his Triple Crown nod. Williams stands out as having won Triple Crowns and losing the MVP to other hitters. Here are the split stats of Ted Williams compared to the MVP award winners in 1942 and 1947 (Joe Gordon and Joe Dimaggio respectively).

All-Time Yankees Team

Getting back into the swing of things... gonna go with an easy one - the most storied franchise in baseball history - the New York Yankees All-Time Team. 

There aren't many positions that you could debate on this list.  I went with Dickey because most historians say that he was a better defensive catcher than Berra (or Posada).  You could take Nettles over A-Rod because A-Rod took PED's or because he played elsewhere but he's one of the most decorated players in the history of baseball and he's played more games with the Yankees than he has with any other franchise.  Lazzeri is a hall of famer and played in NY for 12 seasons.  He has the numbers, the hardware and the tenure to back up the nomination.  Joe Gordon only played 2B in NY for seven seasons and Cano is still at the onset of his promising career.  Willie Randolph is the other name that comes to mind...