Baseball Junkies: Annual Predictions (Part 1)

With March Madness in full swing, it seems appropriate to present our predictions for the upcoming baseball season.  In what has become a rite of passage, we're doing our best Zoltar impression... inevitably, we end up looking like fools 90% of the time but it's that 10% that keeps us coming back.  Last year, Mc and I (OCP) picked five correct postseason participants and Hersh picked six... saying we did poorly would be an understatement... but it's all going to be different this year, right? 

Mc's Predictions

NL East

1. Nationals
2. *Phillies
3. Braves
4. Mets
5. Marlins

I think this is largely a two team division for the NL East.  It's also very likely one of the Wilds will go to whomever doesn't win the division.  The Marlins just blew their team up so they're not really going to compete much this year.  The Mets are about a year or two ahead of the Marlins in the rebuilding game, so they will also not factor in too much in the East.  The Braves are a team full of promise and curiousity with the moves to get both Upton brothers.  They, along with Jason Heyward, make a formidable outfield.  The problem with Atlanta is starting pitching after Tim Hudson.  If they can get the ball to Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel, they'll be well off.  The Phillies while older, could put together a great season if all cylinders are healthy and firing.  You know you're getting 3 aces with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels.  Having Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan as your back end of the rotation will be tough.  That's where I think Washington may have them.  Although not quite as strong as the Phils in their front three, the group of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmerman are a dynamic trio.  Add to that veteran Dan Haren and 10 game winner Ross Detwiler gives them the pitching edge as a full rotation.  The Nats had the most runs scored in the East last year, and they'll continue to get top level production.

NL Central

1. Reds
2. Pirates
3. Cardinals
4. Brewers
5. Cubs

The Reds added Shin-Soo Choo for some speed and power production.  They also have some good young arms in the rotation, although some unclear questions will soon be answered regarding if Homer Baily has turned a developmental corner and how does Aroldis Chapman segue from bullpen to starter.  The Pirates have some dynamite talent in Andrew McCutcheon, Starling Marte, and Pedro Alvarez.  Alvarez needs to be the offensive juggernaut they thought he could.  The pitching staff is made up of guys that were decent a few years ago like A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and Franciscio Liriano.  This could be the year they finnish better than .500.  The Cardinals lost a big puzzle piece with Chris Carpenter being out.  Adam Wainwright is a year removed from missing an entire season.  Last year his ERA, along with several other Cardinal starters, ballooned into the 3's.  They also need Lance Lynn to not have a sophomore slump.  The Brewers lack pitching after Yovani Gollardo and the offense is missing Prince Fielder after a full year without him.  The Cubs didn't make many significant moves in the offset to alter their path out of the basement. 

NL West

1. Dodgers
2. *Giants
3. Rockies
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks

The new Dodgers ownership clearly wanted to make a splash and did so with blockbuster trades landing them Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez.  Added to Matt Kemp who, when healthy, could be the NL's best player, this team is stacked.  The pitching is now stacked too with the additions of Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, and Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu.  The Giants have the arms to match up with the Dodgers, but will undoubtedly fall short on offense.  Even with MVP Buster Posey and Hunter Pence, they just don't have the fire power of the LA.  The Rockies lack pitching to make a serious run, and apart from Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, they're rebuilding the offense as well.  The Padres could surprise but not enough to take the division.  Beyond Chase Headley are question marks on the field and in the rotation.  Arizona is also rebuilding and lacks pitching depth. 

 

*NL Wild Cards - Phillies and Giants

 

AL East

1. Blue Jays
2. *Yankees
3. Orioles
4. Rays
5. Red Sox

The Blue Jays loaded up similar to the Dodgers with MLB ready talent acquiring Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Beuhrle, and Melky Cabrera.  Adding to both the lineup and rotation in the aging and injury riddled AL East makes them a strong contender to win the division.  The Yankees will need their myriad injuries to shore up for another title run.  Baltimore played above their potential last year but still lack the pitching to take the division.  The Rays have a good young pitching staff and Evan Longoria.  After finishing in last place last year, the Red Sox did very little to rectify that beyond getting rid of some bad clubhouse guys. 

 

AL Central

1. Tigers
2. White Sox
3. Royals
4. Indians
5. Twins

I see this division finishing the exact same as last year.  The only team that really got better was Detroit by adding Torii Hunter and getting back Victor Martinez.  They still have the best pitching in the division as well.  The White Sox aged another year and didn't add much to their roster.  The Royals may benefit from another year of maturing their young players, but still lack the power and pitching to surpass the Tigers.  The Indians and Twins are not close at all to contending. 

 

AL West

1. Angels
2. *Rangers
3. Athletics
4. Mariners
5. Astros

The Angels have two players in the argument for best in baseball with Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.  They also have arguably the best from 2012 in Mike Trout.  Further, they added servicable arm Tommy Hanson to complement Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson.  The Rangers lost Hamilton and Michael Young, and replaced them with veteran journeyman Lance Berkman.  They didn't improve, but they didn't fall off too much in the West.  Oakland didn't add much and they're still a middle of the pack team.  The Mariners added some role players in Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Michael Morse, but not enough to contend. 

 

*AL Wild Cards - Rangers and Yankees

 

NL Champs - Dodgers

AL Champs - Tigers

 

WS Champ - Tigers

 

 

 

Hersh's Picks

 

NL East
1. Nationals
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Mets
5. Marlins

Nationals are the favorites of this division and pressure will be on them to repeat.  They have the talent and the manager to get it done.  Phils are better than people think.  Braves aren't as good as people think.  They have a young team that strikes out a lot.  Mets are rebuilding and did the right thing trading Dickey for prospects.  Marlins are a mess.
NL Central
1. Reds
2. *Cardinals
3. Brewers
4. Pirates
5. Cubs

Can the Reds come back from a 3 game collapse in the NLDS?  I think so and with a goal to go farther.  Can Chapman be a starter?  I think so.  Cards are always trouble and Brewers still have a good offense.  Pirates are improved, but not enough.  Cubs are a mess.

NL West
1. Dodgers
2. *Giants
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres
5. Rockies

Dodgers have spent money and improved all over.  Giants will be hard pressed to repeat.  Rest of division is weak.

*NL Wild Cards - Cardinals and Giants



AL East
1. Blue Jays
2. Rays
3. Yankees
4. Orioles
5. Red Sox

Blue Jays made a lot of moves and some good ones.  Picked up Dickey, Josh Johnson and Buehrle.  Bautista should be healthy and Reyes should help.  Rays have the best manager and will always contend.  Yankees are not only old, but not healthy.  Orioles are not good enough to repeat last year.  Red Sox are a mess.

AL Central
1. Tigers
2. Indians
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Twins

Tigers are the class of the division and should repeat.  Indians got a new manager and some new players to go with him.  Should be better.  White Sox will struggle.  Royals are slowly improving and wouldn't be surprised if they finish higher.  Twins made some trades I don't understand.
AL West
1. Angels
2. *A's
3. *Rangers
4. Mariners
5. Astros.

Pressure will be on the Angels to get it done this year after last year's failure.  I think they do.  Hamilton will help take some pressure off Albert.  A's are a good young team and I expect them to
repeat last year.  Rangers had their chance the last 3 years and blew it.  Mariners and Astros have a long way to go.

*AL Wild Cards - A's and Rangers

NL Champion-Reds
AL Champion-Tigers

WS Champ-Tigers

 

 

 

OCP's Picks

 

NL East

1. Phillies

2. *Nationals

3. Braves

4. Mets

5. Marlins

Last year was a mulligan for the Phillies… they’ll be determined to prove that their window hasn’t closed.  They’re only one year removed from boasting the best record in baseball in back to back seasons and if they’re healthy, they’ll compete with the up-start Nationals (who are the odds on favorite to win this division).  The Braves will have a tough time matching up with the pitching in this division and while the Mets are moving in the right direction (Matt Harvey could be a Rookie of the Year candidate), they’re probably a couple years away.

 

NL Central

1. Reds

2. Cardinals

3. Pirates

4. Brewers

5. Cubs

This division should be really fun to watch – there are a lot of exciting lineups and not a lot of pitching in the NL Central.  The Reds have built an offensive juggernaut – you won’t find a hole in their lineup – but the question is do they have the pitching?  If Aroldis Chapman can successfully transition into a starting role, they’ll have a really nice rotation.  If not, they still might have the best rotation but they will have to lean heavily on Homer Bailey.  The Cardinals have to find pitching somewhere – in 2012, returning from Tommy John surgery, Adam Wainwright had a much better second half but still didn’t exactly light the world on fire.  Their lineup should carry them but they had a lot of guys play above expectations last year so you’d think that a return to the mean is likely.  I’m was going to give the Cubs a little love… with a full season of Anthony Rizzo and a new-look rotation which includes some dependable arms, you’d think they would be better but if Matt Garza is not right, they don’t stand a chance.  The Pirates are expecting a lot out of a lot of guys... when it comes to projecting how things will go, if you have to say “if” more than three times, you’re probably in trouble and I think that’s where the Pirates are.

 

NL West 

1. Dodgers

2. *Diamondbacks

3. Giants

4. Padres

5. Rockies

The Dodgers are seemingly trying to buy a championship which doesn’t typically work… I don’t see anyone in the NL stopping them in 2013.  Their rotation is really strong, they have a great bullpen, they have three MVP candidates… I know that these things don’t usually work out but I don’t see how it can’t with the Dodgers.  I could be a year too early with this Diamondbacks wild card pick but they have some really nice young players and their starting pitching should hold up in this division.  All that being said, the Giants will likely win this division because that’s what they do… they come out of nowhere.

*NL Wild Cards - Nationals and Diamondbacks

 

 

AL East

1. Orioles

2. *Blue Jays

3. Yankees

4. Red Sox

5. Rays

Best division in baseball… every team has a chance in the AL East.  The Yankees seem to have the steepest hill to climb but they are the Yankees and that means they’ll be in it.  The Blue Jays are the popular pick right now and I am certainly intrigued but I’m not sold.  They obtained a huge haul from the Marlins and acquired two of the biggest free agents available in an attempt to be relevant but there are some holes in their lineup and R.A. Dickey did normalize over the second half of last season.  Behind Dickey, their rotation is average with the potential to be pretty good. If Josh Johnson’s arm holds up and if Ricky Romero can figure things out, they’ll be fine but those are two big question marks.  The Orioles have a lot of really good young talent and a couple of big arms on the farm in waiting; with Showalter at the helm, they can overcome a lot.  Adam Jones and Matt Wieters are both super stars and their bullpen is lights out. Everything sort of came together for them last year and they earned a postseason berth; some might think that was a fluke but I think it was the progression of a good team realizing its talent.

 

AL Central

1. Tigers

2. Royals

3. White Sox

4. Indians

5. Twins

I don’t see anyone taking down the Tigers.  Add Victor Martinez to the mix and this team has the look and feel of a champion.  The Royals and Indians could both make some noise in 2013 but I see more holes in the Indians roster and it seems less likely that they would be able to make the postseason.

 

AL West

1. Angels

2. *Mariners

3. Rangers

4. Athletics

5. Astros

 

Yep, I'm picking the Mariners to finish second in this division AND earn a Wild Card berth.  If you look at what they’ve done with their team and their lineup, they have a unique mix of young talent, big league veterans and high ceiling prospects.  Right now, without the potential minor league additions, there aren’t many holes in their lineup.  Their rotation might not seem great but Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma form a nice 1-2 punch.  They might not have a legitimate super star to hang their hat on but they have a lot of really good players with breakout potential and with one more year at the helm, I think Eric Wedge will have the Mariners playing great baseball in 2013.  The Rangers let too much get away from them and I’m not sure they have the right mix of players to get into the postseason.  I could be very wrong but their rotation wasn’t good enough last year and I don’t think it will be good enough this year and they will miss Josh Hamilton and Michael Young.

 

*AL Wild Cards - Blue Jays and Mariners

 

 

NL Champs – Dodgers

AL Champs – Tigers

 

WS Champs – Dodgers