Cole Hamels Negotiations - What Kind of Numbers Are We Looking At?

Earlier this week, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that Matt Cain and the Giants had agreed in principle to the largest deal ever awarded to a right-handed pitcher; a five-year extension worth $112.5 million to stay with the San Francisco Giants.  The $112.5 million pact is in addition to the current one-year $15 million deal that Cain has in place so Cain will effectively make $127.5 million over the next six years.  There is also a $5 million signing bonus and a $21 million vesting option for a sixth year option that can bring the total of Cain's deal to $141 million (there is also a $7.5 million buyout if Cain does not reach vesting requirements).  Many sources have cited this deal as a huge win for Cole Hamels, who has reportedly been negotiating an extension with the Phillies this offseason.  This is certainly an indication that Hamels is in line for a big payday but that should be news to no one.  My gut tells me that the deal he gets could shock a lot of people.

Contracts used to gauge Hamels' value - CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee and Matt Cain

Hamels has a lot of things going for him; he is young (28 years old), he has hardware (WS and NLCS MVP trophies), he has had only minor injury concerns over the course of his career and he's left-handed.  He has also anchored the Phillies rotation through the greatest era in franchise history.  There is a reason why the top contracts in baseball have always gone to left-handed pitchers; left-handed starting pitchers are the most coveted commodity in baseball.  Sabathia inked a seven year deal worth $161 million in 2009, parlaying an opt-out clause into a $30 million raise (that will be $55 million, if he stays healthy), effectively bringing his deal to 9 years and $206 million.  According to many sources, the $30 million extension was a bargain; had Sabathia opted out, it was assumed that the he could have gotten higher offers.  Cliff Lee signed a five-year deal worth $120 million, with an escalator that brings it up to six years and $135 million (if he says healthy).  Cain signed the deal explained in detail above.

How do they compare on the field?

CC Sabathia is the best of the bunch - he's a horse, he has the most hardware and he's clearly the most dominating.  He also signed his deal around the same age that Cole will sign his (prior to his age 28 season - Cole is in his age 28 season).  Cliff Lee was a bit older when he signed his contract, a fact which capped the length that teams were willing to go with him on a deal, but since 2008, Lee has been the proverbial Chuck Norris of baseball (who will ever forget this catch he made in the 2009 World Series).  Cain and Cole have very similar numbers but I think that most people would agree that Hamels is the better of the two.  Besides being left-handed, Hamels strikes out batters at a higher clip and carries a lower WHIP (and a better winning percentage) but the two are very similar on numbers and service time.

The skinny...


Cole is going to get a contract that will make him a very wealthy young man.  I think that a deal could look one of two ways - it's either going to be modest longer-term deal (8-9 years) or a richer 6-7 year deal with an opt-out in year three or four.  Opt-outs seem to be the new rave and I think that big name pitchers will continue to seek out opt-outs as a way to maximize value while securing long-term stability.  When inking a pitcher to a long-term deal, the threat of injury always exists so teams also like those opt-out deals because they can stay a little bit shorter.  I think that a pitcher of Hamels' stature could easily seek   How much Cole will get in terms of annual average value will be somewhere around the $20-22 million mark.  I would anticipate some 6-7 year offers on the table with opt-outs; these deals will likely be around $135 and $150 million.  I could also see a few 8-9 year deals coming in at $160-170 million.  The latter deals may sound scary but the lower average annual value represents a 10% discount and if you believe in Cole Hamels, you'll be better off locking him up long-term (the opt-out forced the Yankees  to throw $30 million more on the table and it could have been worse).

Any time you're working with numbers this large, using terms like value maximization and long-term stability seems ridiculous ($100 million is well beyond my definition of security) but baseball is a wildly profitably business and pitchers like Cole Hamels are a rare breed.  There doesn't seem to be a chink in his armor and his trend lines all point up.  If he has another good season, his contract offers will surely be on the upper end of those ranges.  Hamels' injury history is not exactly spotless (he did have surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and to repair a sports hernia that he played through in 2011) but he has seemingly gotten stronger and more durable.  He might be the most important #3 pitcher in all of baseball there are a lot of people that think he'll win at least a couple of Cy Young awards during his career and that could be enough to attract a lot of attention on the free-agent market.

The possibilities...


The Phillies are obviously working very hard to get an extension done but I don't know if that's possible at this point.  Cole has had a great spring and the Matt Cain deal certainly seems to end any doubt that Cole will get a mega-deal in excess of $20 million per year for at least 6 years.  I think that it's likely Cole enters free-agency and I'm sure there will be a lot of teams inquiring about his services.  I think that the Yankees could make a strong push to one-up the Phillies (the sting of losing Cliff Lee is probably still fresh on their minds) and the Dodgers are rumored to be very interested in doing everything they can to bring Cole back to the West Coast (Hamels was born and raised in San Diego) but Cole won't be the only name on the 2013 free-agent market; Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Francisco Liriano will also be highly coveted.  There will almost surely be a few teams that will emerge as "almost" contenders; these teams will be willing to break the bank for a front-line starting pitcher but it's too early to tell which teams will fit that mold.  Maybe the Cardinals or the Cubs or the Blue Jays or the Marlins.  Where he ends up depends on what happens this season; as of this moment, everyone is in first place and that means everyone could use a Cole Hamels.

With Pujols, Reyes and Wilson Off the Market, Who's Next?

The big shoe dropped yesterday (Albert Pujols), and then it dropped again (C.J. Wilson). In the blink of an eye, the top position player and the top pitcher available via free-agency had both somehow ended up in LA (Angels). So with Pujols, Wilson and Jose Reyes all accounted for, the focus now shifts to the rest of the market... who's next? Here's a list of some of the biggest names still available and likely destinations.

Prince Fielder

Likely Destinations: Miami, Chicago, Baltimore and Toronto

Predicting where Fielder will go is tough. There are many more suitors in the mix for Fielder than there were for Pujols - despite a slightly limited skill set (he hits home runs in bunches) his pricetag isn't as hefty so the sticker shock is a little less paralyzing. He's also younger than Pujols. While I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up somewhere else, you have to think that the teams that missed out on Pujols will go hard for Fielder. I don't think St. Louis would look to replace Albert with Fielder this quickly, nor do I think that Fielder would want to be burdened with the pressure of replacing a legend so the Cardinals are probably out, in my opinion. I could see the Orioles and Blue Jays getting into the bidding - building around the 27 year-old Pujols would make sense for both teams as they both boast a core of younger talent. But at the end of the day, I think that the front runners in this race have to be the two other teams in the NL that missed out on Pujols- the Miami Marlins and the Chicago Cubs.

Yu Darvish

Likely Destinations: NY Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles and LA Dodgers

Here's the write-up we did on Yu Darvish.  Not much has changed since then except we have a general idea of what it might cost to negotiate with Yu (between $50 and $100 million).  That will be enough to scare a lot of teams away.  My gut tells me that the Yankees might be the only team comfortable enough with Yu to pay the price of negotiating and signing Darvish but I think that a lot of teams would love to have him and I would be shocked if he wasn't playing in the major leagues in 2012.  He is simply too good to pass up.

Jimmy Rollins

With Jose Reyes signed and accounted for, Jimmy Rollins remains the best shortstop available on the free-agent market.  Rollins and Philadelphia have seemingly been close to an agreement but a five year deal is tough to swallow for the Phils brass.  It will be interesting to see who balks first. 

Likely destinations: Philadelphia, St. Louis and Milwaukee... we talked about Rollins' free agency in greater detail here.

Carlos Beltran

No one was more coveted at the 2011 trade deadline than Beltran.  The 34 year old, six-time all-star was courted by many of the top contenders at the 2011 trade deadline and it seemed like the free agent would be in line for a big payday this offseason.  Well, Beltran ended up in San Francisco (it should be noted that the Mets received a fine haul for his departure) and that experiment did not go according to plans.  The Giants failed to make the playoffs in 2011 and despite the fact that Beltran posted a career best 152 OPS+ for the season, it seems like his value has diminshed a bit.  Despite the incredible numbers he posted last year, teams saw flashes of the "bad" Beltran down the stretch; the one that is playing on surgically repaired knees.  When healthy, he was one of the premier outfielders in the game but he'll be 32 at the onset of the 2012 season and I'm not sure who's going to be eager to negotiate with him and his agent, wonder-agent Dan Lozano.

Likely destinations: Atlanta, Miami, St. Louis, Texas, Toronto, Baltimore... honestly, this thing could go in any direction.  If the market is so thin that Beltran is forced to take a one or two year deal (a la Bobby Abreu in 2009), anyone could get into the mix.

Grady Sizemore: A Look at His 2012 Free Agency Campaign

One of the most interesting names on the list of pending 2012 MLB free-agents is 29 year-old Grady Sizemore.  For those of you unfamiliar with Sizemore's situation, he started his career as the prince of baseball.  In 2005, his first full season in the big leagues, he hit .289/.348/.484 while scoring 111 runs, driving in 81 and smashing 22 HR.  A very successful season by any standards let alone a 22 year old kid.  He followed up that "rookie" campaign with an absolutely tremendous sophomore season (technically, his rookie season came a year earlier when he played in 43 games at the end of the 2004 season).  That season, he hit .290/.375/.533 to go along with 28 HR, 22 stolen bases while leading the league with 134 runs and 53 doubles.  His 53 doubles in 2006 season ranks 29th in major league history for most doubles in a single season.  There are only six active players that have had more doubles in a single season; impressive indeed.  The next season (2007), Grady would win his first of two consecutive Gold Glove awards while swiping more bags (33) and showing more patience at the plate (101 walks).  Sizemore would manage to play one more season without health concerns - earning his first Silver Slugger award and his second Gold Glove while attaining career highs in home runs (33) and stolen bases (38) in 2008.  He would also see his consecutive games played streak end at 382 in mid-April, a sign of bad things to come for the prince of baseball.

Sizemore would play an average of 69 games per season over the next three seasons, battling serious injuries in each of those forgettable campaigns.  His injury troubles started in the spring of 2009 when he sat out of the World Baseball Classic due to a groin injury suffered in early spring.  That season started somewhat promising; Grady hit 6 home runs in the month of April including the first-ever grand slam hit at the new Yankee Stadium on April 16, 2009 but he would be forced to the end an otherwise dreadful season in early September to address elbow issues that had bothered him since spring training.  While on the shelf, the decision was also made to repair an abdominal hernia that was related to the groin injury suffered in early spring. 

Unfortunately for Sizemore, this was only the tip of the iceberg as things would get much worse in 2010.  That season, he would play only 33 games before hanging up the cleats to have season-ending microfracture knee surgery on his left knee; a surgery which would sideline Sizemore until mid-April of the following season (2011). 

In 2011, despite looking like the prince of baseball early on (hitting .378 in 11 games in April with 4 HR), Sizemore would once again find himself shelved with knee issues, this time, his right knee.  He first hit the DL in May after being injured sliding into second base.  With his team surging, Grady opted to attempt to play through the right knee pain.  He played 25 games in June and 14 games in July before reinjuring his right knee again, which forced him to miss the entire month of August.  While on the shelf, Sizemore once again opted to address an abdominal hernia with surgery.  He did manage to return and play 10 games in September but after the season, he was once again on the operating table; arthroscopic surgery on that problematic right knee.  

In case you couldn't keep up, that was five surgeries in three years on both knees, his elbow and his abdomen (twice).  

Despite those injury concerns, I truly believe that there will be plenty of teams inquiring about Grady Sizemore's services.  When healthy, he has proven to be a player with five tools; a rarity in baseball.  The health issues might diminish his ability to be a threat on the base paths and he's probably not a center fielder at this juncture of his career but for a team searching for a cheap lottery ticket and some energy, Grady Sizemore will be a name that certainly sticks out among this year's crop of free-agent talent.  

Sizemore will likely be willing to accept a one-year contract.  In fact, he might prefer it.  Depending upon the level of interest that he receives, he might decide that a one-year deal is best for him; play one year, prove that he's healthy and hit the free market again next season.  Alternatively, there might be a team that is willing to offer him an incentive laden three year deal that could convince him that longer-term security is worth more than the risk that comes along with playing under the cloud of another looming injury.  Make no mistake, if Sizemore endures one more season ending knee surgery, there will be no potential suitors.  

I would think that every American League team would be interested in Sizemore at the price he'll likely command (which I estimate to be no more than $7 million for one year).  Further, Sizemore might feel more comfortable going to a team that can offer him the luxury of days off in the field.  I truly think that this is a situation where Sizemore will be most interested in finding a situation that suits his needs.  His needs at this point are finding a place where he can play a complimentary role, perhaps a place with real grass (better on his knees) and a situation where he can be successful and prove his value.  While I don't think his options are limited to teams in the American League, I do think that there will be fewer suitors in the National League where bench players are so important (it's hard to risk a bench spot on a guy that might not be able to play every day if called upon).  

I think that all of the non-Yankee AL East teams will be in the mix for Sizemore but I think that the only teams that would be a good fit in the AL East are the Orioles and Red Sox.  I think that both of those two teams will emerge as two of the top suitors.  Both teams are pretty deep in the outfield and both teams have new GM's that might feel like making this type of splash.  

Depending on how the rest of free-agency plays out, other AL teams that I think would fit (both sides) are the Tigers and Angels.  The Tigers have a decent team and might be able to afford to take the risk with Grady; they have to be the best fit, at least on paper right now outside of Boston and Baltimore.  The Angels probably have bigger needs to fill and this certainly doesn't seem to be a move that they would make but I could see Mike Scioscia twisting the arm of GM Jerry Dipoto to go out and get a guy like Sizemore because the Angels need offensive help and this is a low-risk, high-reward move that the young GM might want to make.  

In the NL, I think that you have to look for teams with adequate corner outfielders who could also afford to upgrade.  That is, a situation where Grady is slotted to play one of the corner spots every day with the flexibility to get some regular days off, if need be.  Not a platoon but regular rest.  The Brewers, who have been linked to Sizemore, need to make a splash and will have money to spend if the Prince Fielder negotiations don't work out but they're pretty well set at the corner outfield positions so I'd rule them out.  I could see the Braves making a run at Sizemore; they were interested in Carlos Beltran at the deadline and things haven't improved much in the outfield.  Martin Prado's versatility gives the Braves some flexibility to do a lot of things.  The Rockies and Cubs could definitely be in the mix; both teams have talent to build around and needs to fill.  Also, I wouldn't rule out the Dodgers; they scored big on Manny Ramirez for a little while as a low-risk, high-return player so they could be tempted to go that route again.  An outfield that consists of three potential Silver Sluggers would be tough to ignore.

In the end, I think that he'll end up with the Orioles.  I'm probably the only person on Earth who thinks that Sizemore will end up in Baltimore but if Sizemore has a good season in the AL East, he could set himself up for a really big payday.  The Orioles are set in the outfield, sort of.  I'm not sure if there is anyone in that organization that believes they can rely on Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones in 2012.  Markakis suffered through an unbearable slump in 2012 and Reimold has been inconsistent during his short career and there is seemingly a lack of faith in his ability by the Orioles management.  Add to that the declining play of Luke Scott and you've got a situation where Sizemore could come in and start right away at any of the outfield positions and be an upgrade.  Everyone believed that the Orioles were close last year... who knows what Sizemore could do to their chances in 2012.  

My $0.02. Please, tell us what you think and thanks for reading.

Free Agent Class of 2012: C.J. Wilson

The Rangers are one of the hottest teams in baseball and yet their pitching often gets overlooked. If I asked fans outside of Texas who the 'ace' of the Rangers staff was, I'm not sure if the majority of fans would be able to name C.J. Wilson. But make no mistake, Wilson is a bona fide ace and when he enters free agency this offseason, the potential suitors will be lined up. I'll try to come up with a reasonable value for this enigmatic starting pitcher and list some potential landing spots.

2011 free agent contracts used to gauge his value

Hiroki Kuroda, Jorge de la Rosa and Cliff Lee

I started with the biggest free agent contract signed in 2010, Cliff Lee, and worked my way back to a couple more reasonable deals to figure out what Wilson might be worth.  Lee earned his six-year mega-deal (worth about $24 million per year) by posting some of the most ridiculous postseason numbers in baseball history.  For his postseason career, Lee is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA.  Lee also has a Cy Young and GM's had been watching his peripheral numbers trending in the right direction since his 22-3 campaign in 2008.  In short, all of the indicators pointed to continued success. 

De La Rosa (31), like Wilson, was dealt the unfavorable hand of pitching in a notorious hitters' park.  While De La Rosa had not pulled together back to back great seasons before signing his three-year deal worth about $10 million per year, his peripheral numbers (mainly his high strikeout rate) and his 16 win campaign in 2009 made him a high-reward arm that the Rockies felt could be a nice compliment to Ubaldo Jimenez (before they traded him away). 

Hiroki Kuroda (36) is a bit older than Wilson but their numbers and circumstances are similar enough that I felt compelled to compare the two.  Kuroda signed a one-year deal before this season worth about $12 million.  The prior three seasons, he was under contract for about the same amount (a three-year deal which Kuroda signed when he debuted in 2008).  Kuroda might have been able to land a bigger deal on the open market but he felt compelled to stay in Los Angeles.  Hiroki's career 3.46 ERA has earned him a reputation for being consistent, when healthy.