Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
Three years ago today, one of the greatest voices in sports broadcasting history passed away.  Harry Kalas died of heart disease on April 13, 2009.  As you know, Hersh and I are Phillies fans.  Mc, well, we forgive him for being a Mets fan.  Harry's passing was a shock to the entire world of baseball, as Mc would attest, but for Phillies fans, it's as if the world hasn't been the same since his passing.


I found great pleasure listening to games on the radio while Harry was a member of the Phillies broadcast crew.  In fact, listening to games on the radio was my preference (over television). Many nights, I’d head upstairs early and camp beside my clock-radio. The way HK called the game allowed you to feel like you were there – painting a vivid picture with every sentence and every word.  He was truly an artist.  Not only that, but there was just something special about his style; an HK broadcast made you feel intimately connected to the game in a way that television can't.


Listening to HK allowed you to forget how much things have changed over the years.  It peeled away some of the layers that have made the game a little less simple. It always puts a smile on my face to think about what baseball must have been like in the 30′s, 40′s and 50′s… baseball without HD, PED and WAR.  The days where 10 cent tickets were within reach for kids willing to hoard and turn in a few pop bottles.  Not only that, but the emergence of true legends who would go on to transcend the game.  I think about hot summer evenings spent on porch stoops listening closely to transistor radios and the purity of baseball before the business of baseball became public knowledge.  Harry gave you a glimpse of that baseball utopia.  


His style will never be duplicated… the rise of in-depth analysis and statistics has sort of killed the old school broadcasting style of HK.  Harry’s moments of silence allowed you to feel the tenser moments in the game. He allowed you to feel the crowd and think about those breathless moments during the game. His innate ability to set up the play and the situation gave you subtle hints of what might happen while allowing your mind to stir on the game. He gave you enough to have an expectation without over-analyzing the situation to the point where you didn’t have to think about it.
I have a lot of family pictures on my desk of my three sons and my wife but the picture that gets the most comments is an 8 1/2 x 11 collage of HK that I have sitting right next to my computer (they gave them out at the ballpark on HK appreciation day).  Harry is sorely missed.  


Check out these posts from Phillies Nation for more on remembering Harry Kalas.


Harry Kalas Was Baseball
3:30 PM
It has been four days since my beloved Phillies lost to the Cardinals in a decisive NLDS game 5 and even though I'm typically objective and unbiased on this blog, I'm suffering from Post Traumatic Phils-Loss Disorder and I think that I need to talk this thing out if I'm ever going to watch/analyze baseball again.

This post is  in reply to Mc's wonderfully crafted post NLDS: Phils/Cards Recap Part 1.  He brought up a key point of debate that is lingering in Philadelphia - did the Phillies do the right thing by beating the Braves out of the postseason?  

The Braves were limping down the stretch and match-ups are of the utmost importance in the postseason, especially in a short five game division series.  Last year, the highly favored Phillies ran into a buzz saw in the eventual World Champion San Francisco Giants (who won 30 of their final 44 games) and this year, it appears as though they allowed themselves to fall into the same trap, yet again, only this time, the team was the St. Louis Cardinals, and this time, they might have had a choice in the matter.

While I do not agree with the strategy to purposefully lose, I do think that the question bears asking, "Why run your best team out on the field for a meaningless series that can do more harm than good?"  And to justify that point, lets be clear, that I'm not just talking about harm in terms of wins/losses/match-ups, I'm talking about physical harm and the health of the team.

You see, winning your way into a tougher match-up is actually not my biggest gripe.  I can get over that because, hey, at least we knocked the Braves out of the mix but the one thing that I can't get over is indelibly linked to the painful image of the final out of the season for the Phillies and Ryan Howard writhing in pain a few steps out of the batter's box.  Given what we know now regarding the health (or lack thereof) of the Phillies team, as a whole, and knowing that there was absolutely nothing left to play for down the stretch besides an absolutely meaningless franchise win record and to crush the Braves, the question that I have is why were the starters trotted out there time and time again over the final weeks of the season?  Why was Pence asked to play through a sports hernia and patellar tendinitis?  He logged 26 plate appearances over the final seven games of the season (after they had already clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs).  Why was Placido Polanco asked to play through his sports hernia?  He logged 25 plate appearances over the final seven games of the season.  Why was Chase Utley playing in spite of his knee/hip issues and a concussion suffered on September 7th (he had one true day off after he returned from the concussion on September 15th).  How about Ibanez, at 39 years old, logging 58 plate appearances over the final 16 games- a bit concerning, eh?  And finally, asking Ryan Howard to play every day of the final meaningless week of the season in spite of his ailing foot/heel/achilles goes beyond explanation.

With regards to Howard, I'd like to set up the timeline here - he received a cortisone shot on Monday September 19th in his heel (ya know, the same heel that is attached to the achilles tendon that he ruptured) and sat out for the next five days.  Upon returning to the lineup, he appeared in six games over the next five days (starting five of them) without a day off.  I'm not a doctor but I think that it would have been prudent to give him a couple of off days in there to see how his heel/foot/achilles would respond in an off day.  

Howard, like so many Philadelphia athletes, is a polarizing figure in Philadelphia- Phils fans either love him or hate him.  Regardless of how you feel about the Big Piece, it is clear that the pain and discomfort that he reported feeling was real - the need to "calm it down," with a cortisone shot, as Amaro suggested in early September, should have been complimented with ample rest and an MRI before he blew the thing out... just a thought (and that's at a minimum - assuming the MRI would not have shown any tearing).

This is not hindsight... I brought all of this up as it was happening.  Playing 162 games is a grind and, for professional baseball players, baseball is a job.  I know how ineffective I would be at my job if I had to work for two weeks in a row without a day off.  Off days down the stretch have got to be like snow days for middle schoolers - let's be honest, there are very few joys that rival the excitement we all got waking up on a cold January morning to a nice 3-6 inch coating of snow and mom telling us that we could sleep in a little longer.

So maybe the Phillies would have fallen short of the 102 franchise win mark had they rested their starters and maybe the bleeping Braves would have made the playoffs.  Who knows, maybe it was only a matter of time before another team exposed the flaws that were there.  But it's pretty obvious that the outcome we chose in beating the Braves has left everyone feeling unsatisfied and frustrated and therefore it was undoubtedly wrong and I have to blame someone or something.  So I'm blaming the trainers and the lack of foresight by everyone involved in allowing Charlie Manuel to use his starters down the stretch in meaningless games.  Maybe the extra rest wouldn't have mattered because, like Mc said, you never know when it comes to match-ups but judging by the end of the year injury report, I'd say that a little extra rest wouldn't have hurt.
2:42 PM
There are just about 40 games to go in the 2011 season, and a playoff picture is starting to take shape. Currently, there are only three tightly contested divisions in baseball - the NL West, The AL East, and the AL Central. In all liklihood, 2nd place in the AL East is taking the Wild Card. All other division leaders hold at least 6 game lead at this point, although nothing is a given just ask my Mets. Given the state of the pennant races, we focus on pitching staffs in this breakdown, and we couldn't agree on everything. These are my picks, and I'll tell you the places my colleagues and I agreed upon. Starting with the American League.

5. Cleveland Indians

Standouts - Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin
Inconsistent - Ubaldo Jimenez, Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco

The Tribe are in the thick of a pennant race in the Central, and NOBODY would have picked that at the start of the season. They've benefited from solid play from hitters and better than average pitching. They also have benefited from a relatively weak division (they'd be 5th in AL East and 3rd in AL West). We were in agreement that the Indians staff is weakest among playoff contenders. They made a great trade to grab Jimenez. The fire-balling righty can look like the greatest pitcher of his generation on some days, and look terrible on others. The Indians staff is largley untested in a stretch run situation, let alone playoffs. Inexperience could be a detriment to their run.
3:32 PM
Jim Thome belted his 600th home run last night, etching his name in the elite 600 home run club. He became just the eighth player to amass 600 home runs and he did it in fashion, becoming the first player in Major League history to hit his 599th and 600th home runs in the same game. He also gave us the quote of the night during his post-game press conference when he showed what has endeared him to so many fans in so many cities throughout his long career. Wearing his emotions on his sleeve, he said, "I mean, 600 homers, how could you ever imagine that?"

Typical Thome - always genuine, always humble and rarely seen without a smile on his face.

I'm going to re-post an article that we ran on Thome and his credentials. In my opinion, he's a sure thing hall of famer and I would vote for him on his first ballot attempt. He did it with class, he did it with humility and he did it without ever being linked to a performance enhancing drug. He was overshadowed by some big name sluggers who turned out to be cheating; take steroids out of the equation and I think we would have a better appreciation for the feats of Jim Thome.  Check out the original post on Thome below:

Jim Thome Post
12:18 PM
It might be absolutely nothing but then again, last night's loss to the Washington Nationals coupled with a very odd chain of events leads me to speculate that there could be a big story brewing. Judging by the way they handled last nights game and comments made by Charlie Manuel in the post-game press conference, I speculate that the Phillies might be a little bit concerned with the health and conditioning of their third ace, Cole Hamels.

Hamels' fastball is typically in the low 90's, sometimes touching 94. Last night, Hamels didn't touch 90. Consistently hitting 88, his velocity was down and his control was off as he walked more batters last night than any other start this season.

Obviously, reduced velocity in and of itself is not enough to sound the alarms but when Charlie Manuel uses the words, "shoulder stiffness" in his press conference, that is surely something that raises eyebrows. There are certain words and phrases which cause pitchers to cringe- shoulder stiffness, elbow inflammation and reduced velocity are not too far behind Tommy John and Dr. Andrews. Charlie is a tell it like it is kind of guy but I can't imagine him uttering those words haphazardly.

Again, this is purely speculation but two other things that seemed odd to me could conceivably be connected to this possible issue. First, an odd pre-game press conference by Ruben Amaro which was supposedly being called to update the media on the status of Placido Polaco turned out to be completely unrevealing. Amaro might as well stood up there and told us the weather. In hindsight, I wonder whether it could have been precautionary; in the event that they would have to scratch Hamels last minute. There's also the sheer fact that they had Kendrick up very early despite the fact that Hamels had only allowed three earned runs. The careful nature with which they handled his innings tells me that they knew heading into the game that something might not have been right.

Finally, the team as a whole was flat. Rollins was caught not busting it out of the box in the early going and it just seemed like they were all anticipating something awful. I know it's a stretch and hopefully I'm wrong but if there is somthing wrong with Cole Hamels, it would be a devastating blow to a team that has seemed almost unbeatable.
11:30 AM
Did I mention that I love this time of year? This is the time of year when every armchair GM comes out of the woodwork to make his or her predictions... guilty as charged.  I love to analyze and project value and I take pride in my due diligence. I'm going to take some time over the next few weeks to analyze some of the biggest names out there in the upcoming free agent class of 2012. I'll give you an idea of what these players might be worth on the open market and which teams might be interested in pursuing their services.

Today, I'll take a look at Jimmy Rollins and his upcoming free agency.

2011 free agent contracts used to gauge his value:

 - J.J. Hardy and Derek Jeter.

In the past off season, JJ Hardy signed a three-year $22 million and Jeter signed his deal worth, on average, $16 million per year for the first three years with an $8 million option in the final year (with incentives that could bring that final year up to $17 million).

How do they compare on the field:
Hardy and Rollins have very similar offensive and defensive numbers... Hardy has a little more pop but 0 stolen bases. Hardy is also a few years younger and still in his peak years while Rollins' numbers have been on the decline, with the exception of this contract year and he has spent considerable time on the DL over the past couple of seasons.  Jeter, on the other hand, is Derek Jeter... he's a few years older and overpaid but he's rightfully overpaid because of his name and what that name is worth to the Yankees franchise.  I would say that their numbers are very similar; Jeter has a career OPS of .832 versus Rollins' .761.  While OPS strongly favors Jeter, Rollins has averaged only 8 fewer RBI and 11 fewer runs over the course of his career while stealing 14 more bases and playing better defense (that comment might draw ire from some but I feel confident in saying that).
11:21 AM
This is the second part of our two part interview with James, Founder Phuture Phillies. 

QUESTION #5

OCP - Can you speak a little bit about the 20-80 scale and player projection?

James - The 20-80 scale is how scouts evaluate a player's individual tools and then his potential as a whole. It essentially is 20-80 because 50 is considered average, with 3 standard deviations to either side. 80 is the absolute elite, and is very rarely thrown around. An example of an 80 tool would be Justin Verlander's fastball or Mike Stanton's raw power. An example of a 20 tool would be Bengie Molina's running speed. Most MLB players have tools that grade one either side of 50. 60 is considered above average or "plus", as scouts say, and 70 would be considered well above average. On the other side, 40 is below average, and 30 is well below average. Scouts will rate each player's individual tools on the 20-80 scale and then come up with an overall score. Scouts also tend to give both present grades and projected grades, especially for younger players. For example, a 19 year old prospect in A Ball might be a physical specimen who hits moon shot home runs in batting practice to all fields, but during games, he struggles to make contact and his swing is more mechanical, cutting off his power. A scout may give his present power grade a 50, but note that his future power grade is a 70, if he is able to make adjustments to his swing and approach. For hitters, the 5 tools are: hit for average, hit for power, running speed, fielding ability, and throwing arm strength. For pitchers its less defined, but generally scouts focus on: fastball velocity + movement, breaking ball quality, changeup quality, how smooth/clean your delivery/mechanics are, and body projection. The last one is important for high school kids especially. If you're already 6'4, but very skinny and only throwing 88-90, a scout could project you to add 5 mph to your fastball after you add 30 pounds of muscle with a professional workout regimen. This doesn't always happen, which is another reason scouting is so damn difficult. 

QUESTION #6

OCP - you have seen and met a lot of prospects; are there any common traits that you've noticed that distinguish the prospects that make it and the ones that don't?

James -  I've done a lot of thinking about this question over the past 5 years. There is no secret formula for what makes a good prospect. Most MLB stars are excellent athletes who possess well above average raw ability. Raw athleticism is important, but I believe the two things that ultimately separate the guys who go on to have successful big league careers and those that never make it are injuries and the ability to make adjustments. Some players bodies are apparently not made for the rigors of playing professional baseball. Lots of guys who were considered elite prospects in high school/college get to the minors and struggle with one injury after another. In some cases this may be because of their conditioning program or lack of one, but in a lot of cases, it may just be that their body can't handle the wear and tear. Some guys break down easier than others. The second part, the ability to make adjustments, is what I think really separates the talent though. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to play baseball, but its a game of patterns. Pitchers need to learn how to "set up" hitters by using different pitches at different locations. Batters have to understand how a pitcher is trying to attack them. When you see a pitcher throw 2 straight inside fastballs, as a hitter, you can probably guess that a breaking ball away is coming. But it seems some guys aren't able to make this recognition in real time. No one will ever tell you they think Manny Ramirez could have been an astro-physicist, but his preparation and practice is legendary, and one of his biggest strengths was the ability to recognize patterns. Some guys, both hitters and pitchers, are never able to make these adjustments. Some players don't take well to professional coaching. Some guys refuse to make swing adjustments or pitching mechanics adjustments. In short, it's just a really difficult game, and a lot of things have to go right for you to make it to the majors and then succeed in the majors. 

QUESTION #7

OCP - I'm going to put you on the spot with a quick piece of trivia... honor system applies… who is the first draftee to sign a total contract (signing bonus + salary) worth over $1 million?

James -  I know Brien Taylor, the Yankees prospect who got hurt in a fight and was never the same, was the first player to receive a million dollar signing bonus. The first MLB player to make $1M in a season was the Cobra, Dave Parker. I know this because I remember doing a lot of research on signing bonuses for my draft preview work this year. 

CORRECT ANSWER:

In 1986, Bo Jackson became the first draftee to earn $1 million (salary plus signing bonus).  Cobra was the first major league player to surpass the million dollar mark in 1979 but he earned that with his 1978 MVP award.  Jackson got his million via first year player draft (that's the answer I was looking for).  James also earned a bonus point for pointing out Brien Taylor.
11:55 AM
Today, I'm excited to present you with an FBJ first- our first expert interview.

For our first interview, we picked a topic that most casual fans don't typically understand; the inner workings of a major league farm system.  The expert we called on for this is James, Founder of Phuture Phillies.  In my opinion, Phuture Phillies is the preeminent web site for all things concerning the Philadelphia Phillies' minor league teams.  I've been a fan of Phuture Phillies for years so I reached out to James to see if he would answer some questions that I felt like our readers might have about how the farm system works.  James replied almost immediately and I must say that he really hit the ball out of the park.

I think this two part series will give you some great insight into how the minor leagues' work. In order to keep it to a reasonable length (recognizing that many of you will be reading this on Monday morning amidst all of your weekend email) I will post it in two parts so check back in tomorrow for the conclusion.  Enjoy.
9:59 AM
Curt Flood was a polarizing figure in baseball to say the very least. On the field, Flood was a great defensive center fielder with some pop in his bat as well. He came up with the Reds in 1956 at the age of 18, and was quickly traded to the Cardinals in 1958. With the Cards, he was a strong contributor to their 3 World Series appearances and 2 wins during the 60s. A consistent hitter (.293 with the Cardinals), he was known for his glove work in center field. From a fielding perspective, he was considered in the same breath with Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente (his co-gold glove winners from 1963-1969).
10:15 AM



Time for another HOF Debate battle with Curt Schilling our subject. Apart from being somewhat controversial with opinions and statements, Schilling is best known for being a gutty, power pitcher that showed flashes of dominance. This is especially true when looking at his post season numbers.
12:07 PM
http://sendables.jibjab.com/view/WxInNO384t6MH3KW8I8t
11:48 AM
There have been lots of great pitching staffs over the years with mulit-20 game winners and impressive numbers. Along with my partners, I selected two squads to compare the current Phils rotation against to see how they stack up. I'm going to pick a best season, a best "main stars" trio, and a best overall rotation. It's going to be a melding of a particular season, as well as historical perspective of the pitchers involved. First up is the 1971 Orioles with Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar, Dave McNally, and Pat Dobson - the famed 4 x 20 game winners. The second staff is the 1998 Braves featuring Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Denny Neagle, and Kevin Millwood. Now there are caveats that need to be addressed which I'm sure you're already envisioning. First and foremost, the four man rotation vs the five man rotation. That alone gives the Oriole pitchers approximately five extra starts each. Second, pitchers were allowed to pitch deeper into games in the 70s and even the mid 90s. Also, those two eras were also more pitching dominated than today. Lastly, I'm a Mets fan, but I'll be objective. I'll break down the Oriole and Brave staffs and compare to the current Phils for the three decisions, none of which are easy.

The 1971 four 20 game winners were incredibly blessed with perhaps the best defensive infield in history. Gold gloves were earned that year by Brooks Robinson (3B), Mark Belanger (SS), and Davey Johnson (2B), and oh by the way Boog Powell had a .991 fielding percentage. Who knows how many runs this defense saved in 1971. The Oriole pitching staff included Mike Cuellar (20-9, 3.08 era, 124 K's), McNally (21-5, 2.89, 91), Palmer (20-9, 2.68, 184) and Dobson (20-8, 2.90, 187). Cuellar came over from Houston for a bag of peanuts basically a few years prior. He pitched 6 seasons in a row of 18 or more wins, goving over 20 three times. McNally was underrated, and his 1971 season culminated 4 consecutive 20 win campaigns. Most of you know that Palmer was a HOF pitcher and 1971 was his 2nd of 8 twenty win seasons (all done over a 9 year span). Dobson was a journeyman pitcher, with a career winning percentage under .500. 20 wins is 20 wins, but he likely benefited greatly from the defense and momentum the team provided that year. 1969-1974 when the big three, minus Dobson, were together netted 2 Cy Young awards and eleven 20 win seasons.

The 1998 Braves used the bats to provide the momentum and support for their pitching aces. Four guys on that team smashed 30 or more homers providing the pop for the starters. The pitching line was Maddux (18-9, 2.22, 204), Glavine (20-6, 2.47, 157), Smoltz (17-3, 2.90, 173), Millwood (17-8, 4.08, 163), and Neagle (16-11, 3.55, 165). Two notes: Smoltz won 17 games only starting 26 of them. Also, it appears by the ERA totals that Millwood and Neagle benefited from the potent lineup. Comparing the big three, Maddux is a lock HOF pitcher that notched 20 wins only twice. He did, however, have and additional five 19 win seasons, and also had the potentially unduplicatable 17 consecutive 15 win seasons. Glavine, another lock HOF pitcher, had five 20 win seasons of dominance for the Braves. Smoltz is a HOF pitcher in my opinon, though not a lock. 200 wins, 155 saves, and 3000 K's gives him Eckersley type numbers that are hopefully enough to punch a ticket to Cooperstown. Although the Braves pitchers were together longer, I'll give a similar 6 year synopsis, from 1993-1998, of their legacy. Totals netted 5 Cy Young awards and four 20 win seasons.

The 2011 Phillies are an interesting case study because they have the defensive prowess akin to the Orioles, and also the power bats similar to the Braves. Their projected pitching lineup and totals (based on 162 game averages from baseball-reference.com with adjustments) is as follows: Roy Halladay (17-9, 3.32, 175), Cliff Lee (16-9, 3.85, 168), Roy Oswalt (16-9, 3.18, 183), Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.53, 205) and Blanton/5th starter (12-12, 4.20, 140). It's not outside the realm of possibility that any one of the main four guys could go for 20 wins this year. Maybe even all of them, but probably not Hamels. Among them, although not in a tidy 6 year stretch, they possess 3 Cy Young awards and six 20 win seasons.

Bearing in mind all the stipulations laid out in the beginning, I contend the best pitching season was 1971. There's something really pretty about looking at four 20s in the win column. Among all the teams' big three combos, I'd take Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz ahead of Palmer/McNally/Cuellar and Halladay/Lee/Oswalt. The latter may take the mantle when all is said and done though. Begrudgingly, I will admit that if healthy, and fulfilling potential, having Cole Hamels as your #4 (a WS MVP) makes the Phillies new staff the best ever assembled in my humble opinion. I would greatly welcome comments, debates, and disagreements!
7:41 PM
Here at Baseball Junkies, we'll often ask you to make a list of an all-time team, players, etc. Typically we allow for any 3 outfielders, not necessarily LF, CF, and RF (although bonus points if that's how you do it). Also 2 starting pitchers and one reliever/closer. Since the majority of our readers thus far are Phillies fans, I thought that would make the best team to start with. I'm not putting any year restrictions on this, although many of us may not know some of the older Phils. Here's what I got...see if your list differs from mine.

C-Dutch Daulton
1B-Ryan Howard
2B-Chase Utley
SS-Jimmy Rollins
3B-Mike Schmidt
OF-Chuck Klein
OF-Bobby Abreu
OF-Richie Ashburn
SP-Steve Carlton
SP-Robin Roberts
RP-Tug McGraw
11:27 AM
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