In case you have not heard, the Houston Astros were sold and subsequently moved into the American League West Division. The Astros are a proud franchise with decent history so it is not a shock that the fan base has reacted with disdain.
I just loved this comment at Astros County, our blog roll affiliate on the situation:
I hate Bud Selig with the hate of a thousand suns. Fifty years of tradition flushed down the toilet.
Moving forward, we will be periodically reviewing our All-Franchise and All-Decade teams to ensure that we haven't missed names and to keep up with the ever-changing faces of baseball. Guys like Dustin Pedroia will likely play their way onto the All-Time teams, requiring us to reevaluate our teams. And because we're not perfect, there will be instances where we may have missed on a player. We will re-post our teams as we feel necessary.
In this post, I'd like to give you a chance to help us make a decision as to whether we may have missed on a specific player by comparing the two players side-by-side. I'm not going to give you the names because the challenge that we face in picking players for our all-decade teams is separating career performance from respective performance in a specific league during a specific decade. I'll present you with the stat lines of two relief pitchers for the decade that we're looking at with as much supporting information as possible. Your mission, should you choose to accept, is to pick the one reliever that should represent the all-decade team. Two players, one roster spot... good luck.
Note: All stats and supporting information reflects stats earned during the decade we're referencing and within the respective league.
Player A
Player A is a Hall of Famer. He started the decade as a starter before switching to relief full-time midway through the first season. He also spent the final three seasons in the other league (switched leagues late in the decade). He earned four all-star appearances in the decade, showed up on the Cy ballot twice and the MVP ballot three times (league and decade respective, of course). He was also named the WS MVP for his efforts in one of his postseason appearances. In his best season in the decade, he went (7-8) with a 1.91 ERA while saving 22 games, throwing 126 innings. He led the league in games twice and games finished once during the decade.
Cumulative stats for Player A:
441 G (29 starts), 61W-54L-124 SV, 2.76 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.106 WHIP, 895 IP, 3604 BF, 740 H, 275 ER, 251 BB, 723 SO
Per 162 stats for Player A:
64 G, 9W-8L-18SV, 2.76 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 130 IP, 523 BF, 105 SO, 37 BB, 2.88 SO/BB
Postseason stats:
27 G, 3W-4L-8SV, 52.2 IP, 13 ER, 43 H, 16 BB, 40 SO, 2.56 ERA, 3 WS rings
Player B
Player B was a three time all-star during the decade. He won a Cy Young award during the decade and showed up on four MVP ballots and two Cy ballots (including the one that he won). He led the league in saves and games finished twice and games once.
Cumulative stats for Player B:
600 G, 69W-59L-190 SV, 2.61 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.214 WHIP, 960, 3947 BF, 847 H, 278 ER, 319 BB, 590 SO, 16.7
Per 162 stats for Player B:
68 G, 8W-7L-22SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 109 IP, 447 BF, 67 SO, 37 BB, 1.85 SO/BB
Postseason stats:
10 G, 3W-0L-1SV, 19 IP, 4 ER, 13 H, 1 BB, 8 SO, 1.89 ERA, 1 WS ring
The 2011 Silver Slugger awards were announced yesterday on the MLB Network in a much less "glamorous" awards production (than the Gold Glove awards, which were announced the day before). The MLB Network does a very nice job with their productions and yesterday was definitely proof of that. We heard from some of the winners, they anaylzed the selections and kept the production quick and fluid.
Here are your winners with some commentary of some of the notable snubs.
AL
C - Alex Avila
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Robinson Cano
SS - Asdrubal Cabrera
3B - Adrian Beltre
OF - Curtis Granderson
OF - Jose Bautista
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury
DH - David Ortiz
NL
C - Brian McCann
1B - Prince Fielder
2B - Brandon Phillips
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Aramis Ramirez
OF - Ryan Braun
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Justin Upton
P - Daniel Hudson
A few notable snubs were Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Jose Reyes and Mike Napoli.
With all due respect to Adrian Gonzalez, who had a fine year posting a .957 OPS and a 5.5 offensive WAR, Miguel Cabrera did more with less. He posted a higher batting average (.334, 1st in the AL), a higher on-base percentage (.448, 1st in the AL) and a higher slugging percentage (.586, 2nd in the AL). He led the league in doubles, he posted 30 HR and was first in runs created despite not batting in a murderer's row-esque lineup.
Berkman was also robbed, in my opinion. Justin Upton had a great season by any standard but Berkman had the same amount of home runs while posting a better batting average (.301), on-base percentage (.412, second in the NL) and slugging percentage (.547). His .959 OPS was 61 points higher than Justin Upton and let us not forget that Berkman hits in a pitcher-friendly park (his 166 OPS+, which factors in ballpark statistics, was 2nd best in the NL).
Jose Reyes might have hurt his chances by taking himself out of the final game of the season to secure a batting title but the fact remains, he won a batting title hitting .337. That might seem like an oddity but in 32 years (the Silver Slugger began in 1980), the batting title winner has not earned a Silver Slugger twelve times. Tulowitzki was a worthy recipient but Reyes' Offensive WAR of 6.2 was good for third best in the NL and he also led the league in triples.
Mike Napoli probably did not win the award because he was not the full-time catcher the entire season and played other positions (he only played 57 games behind the plate) but if Napoli was eligible, by most accounts, it sounds like he was, then he should have won the award. His 1.047 OPS was good for second best in the AL. His thirty home runs landed him in the top ten and his triple slash numbers (.320/.414/.631) were all better than Avila's. It's tough to argue with the numbers but the fact that he was caught in a time share early on (and because catchers don't play every day) makes the debate a little sticky. If you asked me who was the best offensive catcher in 2011 and showed me the numbers without any qualifiers, I would say Napoli was that guy.
You could also make arguments for Yadier Molina, Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia and Carlos Beltran, among a few others but I'm ok with the rest of the selections as is. That's my $0.02, what do you think?
Your 2011 Gold Glove winners are:
AL
C - Matt Wieters
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Erick Aybar
3B - Adrian Beltre
LF - Alex Gordon
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury
RF - Nick Markakis
P - Mark Buehrle
NL
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Joey Votto
2B - Brandon Phillips
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Placido Polanco
LF - Gerardo Parra
CF - Matt Kemp
RF - Andre Ethier
P - Clayton Kershaw
My predictions from this post were pretty close. I missed in the outfield in the NL (I had Chris Young over Kemp and Jay Bruce over Ethier. I mentioned my disdain for picking corner outfielders over center fielders so Bruce... it is what it is but Kemp would have actually been my third pick behind Young and the incumbent, Shane Victorino in CF) and I also missed at 1B, SS and LF in the AL. I'll admit that Adrian Gonzalez and Teixiera was a pick 'em for me so I'm ok with that selection but I stand by J.J. Hardy over Erick Aybar... Aybar was better at turning the double play but all other defensive metrics point towards J.J. Hardy including a UZR that was almost 10 points higher, half as many errors and a slightly better range factor. Hardy did play in 13 fewer games so I guess that hurt his candidacy but I'd still take him. I'm also more than a little bit surprised that Alex Gordon won the award over Brett Gardner, who was clearly the best defender in the bunch. Don't get me wrong, Gordon had a phenomenal season, especially considering the fact that he was playing a new position and his 20 assists are certainly impressive and make him a worthy recipient, but if you asked all thirty GM's who they would rather have playing defense in the outfield, Gardner would likely earn all thirty votes. In fact, his 31 UZR is the highest of any player at any position... arguably the fastest player in baseball, he gets to balls that others don't and, unfortunately, he was passed up.
As for the event itself, I think that ESPN has to be a little bit upset with the way things panned out. Slated to start at 10:00, the show started 45 minutes late due to a Toledo-Northern Illinois football game that featured 123 combined total points and 1,165 combined total yards (and zero defense). The hour long show was a bore but I'm saying that's par for the course; lengthy awards shows must generate better ratings than late night reruns, otherwise they would get the hint that we deserve better. And truth be told, John Kruk probably wouldn't be my first pick to sit on a panel dedicated to discussing position defense but I guess Ozzie Smith wasn't available.
My $0.02... tell us what you think.
AL and NL Gold Glove Nominees were announced today kicking off awards season. In case you didn't already know, the Gold Glove process has changed this year as they're announcing the nominees ahead of a televised ESPN awards ceremony... cha-ching.
A bigger change, in my opinion, is that they have decided to divvy up outfield awards by position (in the past, they have given out awards for outfielders and this year there will be awards for RF, LF and CF), which paves the way for guys like Jay Bruce and Matt Holliday to win fielding awards despite being less than stellar defenders. No offense to either player but if they were good defenders, they would be playing center field. Defense is not a top priority for corner outfielders, especially in the National League. In my opinion, the powers that be are doing us a disservice by making this change. It was better the way it was - Matt Kemp is a much better defender than Matt Holliday and yet, Holliday has a much better chance of winning an award. They perform the same job in the outifield, don't they?
Despite that change, which I'm less than thrilled with, I think that the pool of nominees is pretty good. They may have missed in a few cases but I think that they did a fair job of putting the names of the deserving winners in the field.
So here are your nominees (with an * by my picks) along with some commentary. Enjoy!
NL
P - *Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, Kyle Lohse
C - *Yadier Molina, Brian McCann, Carlos Ruiz
1B - *Joey Votto, Gaby Sanchez, James Loney
2B - *Brandon Phillips, Neil Walker, Omar Infante
SS - *Troy Tulowitzky, Ronny Cedeno, Alex Gonzalez
3B - *Placido Polanco, Daniel Descalso, Pablo Sandoval
LF - *Gerardo Parra, Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday
CF - Matt Kemp, Shane Victorino, *Chris Young
RF - Andre Ethier, Carlos Beltran and *Jay Bruce
AL
P - *Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren, Fausto Carmona
C - *Matt Wieters, A.J. Pierzynski, Alex Avila
1B - Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Kotchman, *Mark Teixeira
2B - *Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler
SS - Erick Aybar, *J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera
3B - *Adrian Beltre, Kevin Youkilis, Evan Longoria
LF - Alex Gordon, *Brett Gardner, Sam Fuld
CF - *Jacoby Ellsbury, Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos
RF - *Nick Markakis, Torii Hunter, Jeff Francoeur
Knee-jerk... of course, a few CF are going to get screwed. If Matt Holliday wins a GG over Chris Young, that would be a traveshamockery.
Besides that, there are a couple of really good AL shortstops that didn't get nominated - Alcides Escobar and Alexei Ramirez. Asdrubal Cabrera will probably win and that would be a huge travesty and an indication of where the new age ESPN award is heading. Cabrera made a handful of web gems early on but in terms of UZR, which is a MAJOR fielding metric, he is the absolute worse SS in baseball (-11.8 UZR).
It was a bad year for 3B... Not too many qualifiers as a few perennial Gold Glove candidates missed time (Scott Rolen, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman).
Justin Upton deserved a nomination... could have had three deserving Diamondbacks outfielders make the field and when you consider how bad Beltran was in San Francisco, it's safe to assume that Upton was a snub (overall, Beltran's -9.2 UZR is third worst in baseball).
One major positive is that they didn't just throw Derek Jeter or Ichiro Suzuki in there just because they're Jeter and Ichiro... those players didn't deserve nominations so they didn't get them. Kudos to the nominators on that one (although they did find a way to squeeze Torii Hunter in there ahead of Nick Swisher; undoubtedly the biggest SNAFU of all but it could have been worse, I guess).
It has been four days since my beloved Phillies lost to the Cardinals in a decisive NLDS game 5 and even though I'm typically objective and unbiased on this blog, I'm suffering from Post Traumatic Phils-Loss Disorder and I think that I need to talk this thing out if I'm ever going to watch/analyze baseball again.
This post is in reply to Mc's wonderfully crafted post
NLDS: Phils/Cards Recap Part 1. He brought up a key point of debate that is lingering in Philadelphia - did the Phillies do the right thing by beating the Braves out of the postseason?
The Braves were limping down the stretch and match-ups are of the utmost importance in the postseason, especially in a short five game division series. Last year, the highly favored Phillies ran into a buzz saw in the eventual World Champion San Francisco Giants (who won 30 of their final 44 games) and this year, it appears as though they allowed themselves to fall into the same trap, yet again, only this time, the team was the St. Louis Cardinals, and this time, they might have had a choice in the matter.
While I do not agree with the strategy to purposefully lose, I do think that the question bears asking, "Why run your best team out on the field for a meaningless series that can do more harm than good?" And to justify that point, lets be clear, that I'm not just talking about harm in terms of wins/losses/match-ups, I'm talking about physical harm and the health of the team.
You see, winning your way into a tougher match-up is actually not my biggest gripe. I can get over that because, hey, at least we knocked the Braves out of the mix but the one thing that I can't get over is indelibly linked to the painful image of the final out of the season for the Phillies and
Ryan Howard writhing in pain a few steps out of the batter's box. Given what we know now regarding the health (or lack thereof) of the Phillies team, as a whole, and knowing that there was absolutely nothing left to play for down the stretch besides an absolutely meaningless franchise win record and to crush the Braves, the question that I have is why were the starters trotted out there time and time again over the final weeks of the season? Why was Pence asked to play through a sports hernia and patellar tendinitis? He logged 26 plate appearances over the final seven games of the season (after they had already clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs). Why was
Placido Polanco asked to play through his sports hernia? He logged 25 plate appearances over the final seven games of the season. Why was
Chase Utley playing in spite of his knee/hip issues and a concussion suffered on September 7th (he had one true day off after he returned from the concussion on September 15th). How about Ibanez, at 39 years old, logging 58 plate appearances over the final 16 games- a bit concerning, eh? And finally, asking Ryan Howard to play every day of the final meaningless week of the season in spite of his ailing foot/heel/achilles goes beyond explanation.
With regards to Howard, I'd like to set up the timeline here - he received a cortisone shot on Monday September 19th in his heel (ya know, the same heel that is attached to the achilles tendon that he ruptured) and sat out for the next five days. Upon returning to the lineup, he appeared in six games over the next five days (starting five of them) without a day off. I'm not a doctor but I think that it would have been prudent to give him a couple of off days in there to see how his heel/foot/achilles would respond in an off day.
Howard, like so many Philadelphia athletes, is a polarizing figure in Philadelphia- Phils fans either love him or hate him. Regardless of how you feel about the Big Piece, it is clear that the pain and discomfort that he reported feeling was real - the need to "calm it down," with a cortisone shot, as Amaro suggested in early September, should have been complimented with ample rest and an MRI before he blew the thing out... just a thought (and that's at a minimum - assuming the MRI would not have shown any tearing).
This is not hindsight... I brought all of this up as it was happening. Playing 162 games is a grind and, for professional baseball players, baseball is a job. I know how ineffective I would be at my job if I had to work for two weeks in a row without a day off. Off days down the stretch have got to be like snow days for middle schoolers - let's be honest, there are very few joys that rival the excitement we all got waking up on a cold January morning to a nice 3-6 inch coating of snow and mom telling us that we could sleep in a little longer.
So maybe the Phillies would have fallen short of the 102 franchise win mark had they rested their starters and maybe the bleeping Braves would have made the playoffs. Who knows, maybe it was only a matter of time before another team exposed the flaws that were there. But it's pretty obvious that the outcome we chose in beating the Braves has left everyone feeling unsatisfied and frustrated and therefore it was undoubtedly wrong and I have to blame someone or something. So I'm blaming the trainers and the lack of foresight by everyone involved in allowing Charlie Manuel to use his starters down the stretch in meaningless games. Maybe the extra rest wouldn't have mattered because, like Mc said, you never know when it comes to match-ups but judging by the end of the year injury report, I'd say that a little extra rest wouldn't have hurt.
I'm a Phillies fan and I make my allegiance very clear but I try to be a baseball fan first with this blog and intend to always look at things objectively. Following an exciting and supremely intense win or go home game 5 between the Yankees and Tigers, there are obviously a lot of questions swirling about the direction of the New York Yankees. What's going to happen to CC Sabathia? Will the Yankees pursue Yu Darvish? Can they woo CJ Wilson away from Texas? Has Jorge Posada played his last game in Yankee pinstripes?
All of those questions are valid and important but not entirely time sensitive. What's on my mind - what happened in game 5? It is fairly evident that the Yankees were doomed by untimely hitting in game 5 and so knowing that, the question that I have, which has not been asked elsewhere, is where was Jesus Montero?
I'm certainly an outsider looking in but in a close game that called for a timely hit, I see no reason why Montero could not sniff an at bat. The rookie batted .328/.406/.590 in limited time during the regular season and came up with two big hits in game four (going 2-2 with an RBI). Maybe he's not as seasoned as some of the other guys that were taking at bats in big spots last night but I know that I would have been scared to death to see him step to the plate against my team in any situation where a base hit scores two and puts the Yankees ahead (can you imagine the reception he would have received from the Yankee crowd? I'm getting goose bumps just thinking about it).
Joe Girardi deserves a ton of credit for keeping the Yankees in it last night. He was forced into his bullpen in the third inning, and he definitely had a ton of adversity to overcome. Finding the right mix to limit the Tigers to one run over those final six frames has to be considered a victory but he didn't make Leyland pay for not using Verlander. I wonder if things would have been different if Sweet Baby Jesus would have gotten his chance to shine.
Hersh wrote a post here explaining why he feels like pitchers should be given an even shot at winning the MVP award. He also listed his criteria for an MVP caliber player. In this post, I'll give you my rebuttal, explaining why I feel that a pitcher is indebted with an uphill battle for MVP candidacy.
This post, of course, is referencing the continuing debate as to whether Justin Verlander is worthy of the MVP award. To be candid, we all have him on our proverbial ballots but Hersh was the only one of the three FBJ contributors that had him finishing first. My pick for the award was Curtis Granderson. Verlander would have been third on my ballot behind Granderson and Verlander's teammate, Miguel Cabrera.
First, I'll do my best to lay some "laissez faire" ground rules for my MVP voting. I think that team finish should have something to do with who wins the MVP award but I also think that player performance should be more heavily weighted into the equation (can't discriminate against a player that is put into a bad situation). There is no right or wrong answer... there's no formula to define an MVP. As for pitchers - I don't think that I would say, "No way would I ever vote for a pitcher to win the MVP award" but I think that the field would have to be pretty weak and the starting pitcher would have to be extremely dominant. The reason is three-fold: 1.) pitchers already have an award to call their own, 2.) starting pitchers have an unfair advantage because their contribution to the team is more easily quantifiable (flawed, for sure, it's a little stat called wins) and 3.) I think that position players, by and large have more stress and strain over the course of a season than a pitcher (position players are required to hit, field and run the bases for 162 games - a starting pitcher nowadays pitches 35 times during the regular season, at most).
Let's address the Cy Young award. Prior to the Cy Young award, the MVP was it so I think that pitchers were deservedly considered as equals but once the Cy Young award took over as THE pitcher award - a popular metric for Hall of Fame voting and player value - I think that the MVP evolved into an award for the best position player (although, not defined as such). Some would argue that there is a Hank Aaron award for position players but I'll donate a $1 to a charity of your choice if you can tell me who won the Hank Aaron award last year (cue chirping crickets). Maybe it took a while for the Cy to catch on but it's pretty obvious that the trend has been to move away from pitcher MVP's and that's how I would vote. Position player first... Pitcher only if the situation dictates (if the field was weak and the pitcher was phenomenal).
So maybe I can't tell you an exact formula for what an MVP is, but I can tell you what an MVP is NOT...
- He's likely NOT the best player on the worst team (unless that player was EXORBITANTLY better statistically than the other contenders)
- He's NOT a role player... looking for players that lead their teams on the field and in the clubhouse. Looking for star quality and character guys.
- He's NOT a player that started the year strong and flamed out... I think that MVP's have to come up big when it matters most (which is why it's so hard to give the award to a player on a losing team - there's no way to evaluate a player under pressure if his team was never in it).
- An MVP is NOT a player that spends significant time on the DL or a player that endured relentless streaks of mediocrity.
- An MVP is NOT the necessarily the guy that everyone likes or the guy from the big market town... just because you're a Yankee or a Sawk doesn't mean you're entitled to the award.
So there's my rebuttal... what are your thoughts?
In case you missed it, Joe Maddon, the manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, took a huge gamble in game one of the American League Division Series, starting rookie Matt Moore. A rookie starting in the postseason is hardly rare or risky but for Maddon to call Moore's number in game one of the postseason despite the fact that Moore, a mid-September call-up, had only started one big league game in his entire career is unprecedented and remarkably bold. In fact, no pitcher in history has started game one of the postseason with only one major league start under his belt.
The move was largely out of necessity but Maddon had other options and the reality is that there was no way to know how Moore would hold up under the bright lights. Maddon's move was risky and widely criticized. Well, after 2-hitting the Rangers on the road for seven innings in a decisive game one victory, it is clear that Maddon's gamble to go with Moore paid off.
Consider this - Moore is the youngest pitcher in AL history to win his first postseason start and it wasn't just a quality start - he was dominant. I know that sometimes a new pitcher has an advantage over the oppostition because the scouting report isn't as thick. However you have to be thoroughly impressed with his moxie and even if the Rays don't win this series, I think that Matt Moore will be the odds on favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2012.
Moore's performance and the situation surrounding his big game one start got me thinking - is there anything comparable to what he's done in baseball history. I consulted with Hersh and he threw out the name Marty Bystrom.
On September 10, 1980, Bystrom, at the ripe age of 21, made his first career start for the Philadelphia Phillies. He would make five more starts that season, going 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA. Dallas Green made the decision to use Bystrom as the fourth starter instead of Bob Walk, the pitcher with the most unfortunate birth name in history, for the postseason run. Walk, a rookie as well, had compiled an 11-7 record over the course of the season with a 4.57 ERA. The decision to bring up Bystrom was made largely because of the implosion of Randy Lerch. Lerch had a few good seasons for the Phils leading up to that memorable championship season but struggled immensely in 1980 - with a 4-14 record and a 5.16 ERA, it was easy to see why Green felt compelled to go with Bysrom, despite his lack of experience.
The hope was that the Phillies, who had been picked by Sports Illustrated to finish last in the NL East (much like the Rays, who were picked no higher than third by almost every media outlet), could get through the short NLCS against the Houston Astros without having to turn to Bystrom but, as luck would have it, the Phillies would have to turn to Bystrom for the decisive game five for a chance to go to the World Series. Bystrom pitched well - giving up two runs (one earned) in a ten inning classic. The Phillies would win that series and move on to the World Series against the Royals. Bystrom would pitch one more game in the World Series, game five against Larry Gura. The Phillies would win behind a two-run ninth inning comeback. Bystrom gave up three runs in 5 laborsome innings of work.
The comparison between what Bystrom did in 1980 and what Matt Moore did in this postseason is like comparing a Ferrari to a Fiat. While both cars are foreign and begin with the letter "F," it's pretty clear that one is superior to the other. What Moore did is historic and Maddon's gamble is up there with Tommy Lasorda's decision to pinch-hit with Kirk Gibson in the 1988 World Series but for one moment, it's nice to remember what Marty Bystrom did for the Philadelphia Phillies and who knows, maybe Matt Moore's historic outing will vault the Rays to the same fate as those 1980 Philadelphia Phillies.
It's been an interesting week around both leagues. Playoff races are heating up with more teams vying for the Wild Cards than we may have thought a month ago. Here are some of the stories gaining traction in the baseball world.
AL MVP Race - Justin Verlander vs Curtis Granderson
Seems like these are the two horses in the race, so to speak, with Jose Bautista and myriad Red Sox in the mix (Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury). See our discussion of the two major candidates here. You can still vote on our main page as to who you think should win the award.
Pittsburgh Historic Fall
In mid July, we were talking about the Buccos being in 1st place and on the verge of snapping their abysmally bad 18 consecutive losing seasons (see article here). They looked like that had the talent in the field and on the mound to thrive down the stretch. Shortly after we posted about their fine season, they peaked at 7 games over .500 at 51-44. They were in first place...then...they reverted back to the Pirates of old. Since that day, July 19, they've gone 18-43 for a .295 winning percentage and they've plummetted down to 4th place. They've also guaranteed their 19th consecutive losing season.
Phillies Minor Collapse
The Phillies have dropped six games in a row on the heels of clinching their 5th consecutive NL East Division title. Jayson Stark noted on Twitter, via Elias Sports Bureau, that the Phils are the first team ever to lose six in a row right after clinching. An interesting statistic, but nothing to worry about in my opinion. The pressure is off, the team is rotating in young players and non starters, and they're gearing up for the playoff push. An argument can be made the team needs some wins to keep positive momentum. However, I would not assume this current lapse is indicative of their upcoming playoff performance.
200,000th Major League Game
Baseball-Reference.com has a countdown on their main page toward the 200,000th major league game dating back to 1876. They estimate that game to take place tomorrow, September 24, 2011. Each season, the league plays about 2430 games, so it will be quite some time before another historic game like this one.
Wild Card Races
In the AL, the Red Sox could potentially see a collapse that would make the 2007 Mets and 1964 Phils gaffaw. With only 6 games to go, Tampa Bay is on their heels, a mere 2 games back as of this posting. The Angels are also lurking at a modest 3 games behind. The NL Wild Card hunt is far from over as well. The Braves seemed like a lock a few weeks ago, but the St. Louis Cardinals are not done fighting and will take this race down to the wire. The Red Birds have gone 14-6 in September compared to the Braves' 8-13 record. The Cards sit just 2 games back. The division winners are pretty well sealed at this point, but we should have an exciting WC finish in both leagues.
9/11/2001.
We all remember where we were and the images of that day will remain etched in our minds forever. I'm not sure if we will ever be completely healed from the effects of that day but we have certainly moved forward. Today, I think that it's fitting to take a look at how baseball has walked stride for stride with the defining moments in our country throughout history and to recognize the importance of this date as we continue to rebuild and move forward.
What makes baseball so special is the history behind the game and what it has always meant to our country. Baseball is America's pasttime- it gives us something to cheer for, a home team to root for and an escape from the challenges going on around us.
During the Great Depression, baseball struggled, like America, and there were questions as to whether baseball would survive. But rather than shutting gates, owners reduced ticket prices, players took reduced salaries and franchises grinded through it despite suffering losses. Resiliency and hard work defined the players of this era and some of the greatest players in baseball history not only played during this dark time but were also born during these years. I picture many players like Ted Williams and Bob Feller playing stick ball as children - doing anything they could to get away from the struggles at home. Like many children growing up today emulating the play of Derek Jeter and Roy Halladay, those players aspired to be the next Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig but while our kids today might be motivated by fancy cars and big paychecks, the motivation of the Feller's and Williams' was probably to get away from the struggles of life.
It is clear that, through that difficult period, Baseball and America continued to walk stride for stride. Fates turned in the late 1940's and things were seemingly improving but the struggles became more serious with the events surrounding Pearl Harbor and World War II.
During World War II, there were so many great players that lost prime years to war and the level of play was somewhat diminishe, and yet, baseball continued. The players that stayed behind did their best to provide something worth rooting for, keeping baseball afloat until our heroes could return. After the triumphant end to WW2, baseball flourished unlike any other time in history - our patriotism and spirit renewed.
The next twenty years of baseball were special and the Heartbeat of America was stronger than ever but as we moved forward beyond those expansive years, we slowly lost some of the character that had made baseball and America so special. Baseball slowly became a business rather than a National identifier. The sense of responsibilty that came with playing nine innings of America's game faded and was replaced with a sense of entitlment. There were some great players and teams during this time (some of the best in history) but eventually the level of play diminished along with it to the point where baseball seemed to be dying in the early 90's (the strike of '94 a clear indication of that).
So maybe it took a while but baseball became stale much like our spirit the spirit of innovation and entrepreneurship that once made America the land of opportunities. Honestly, I think that we were a bit spoiled and clearly naive. While profits and salaries grew, the powers that be were happy to ride the gravy train. In baseball, the game was watered down and needed heroes. In business, bottom lines motivated all. Unfortunately, for baseball, those heroes came at the expense of the integrity of the game and for America, the bottom line motivation lent itself to greed and manipulation. While the game turned to Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa to provide a spark, the general population was turning to Enron, the dot-com boom and the stock market bubble to generate prosperity. Bottom lines and immediate gratification had completely replaced hard work and perseverance.
And this is where the 9/11 story begins.
As much as it pains me to say this, we needed a 9/11. We needed to be reawakened; we needed something to remind us of our identity and baseball is playing an important part in that reawakening.
One of the most vivid memories that I have from 9/11 is from Yankee stadium in the days following 9/11. As all eyes had turned to Yankee Stadium to see how America's team would honor its fallen heroes, President Bush confidently emerged from the dugout and threw a strike to home plate for the ceremonial first pitch.
He threw a strike.
That pitch, which will never show up in any box score, is undoubtedly the most important pitch in American history. That pitch emphatically sent a message to all American citizens that we needed to stand up, be confident and get our mojo back. It also let the terorists know that we would not be gripped by fear; we would stand tall and fight to preserve our liberties.
Today, ten years later, baseball is flourishing and although things are still a bit shaky outside of the stadiums in our 9 to 5 worlds, our sense of pride and patriotism for this country is as strong as ever. Our commitment to act responsibly and respectfully is heightened and we are more vigilant to the threats that exists to our liberties. We are also as confident as ever that we will persevere. Today is will obviously be a day of rememberance but it should also be a day of celebration. We must celebrate the lives that were GIVEN to serve a higher cause- the renewal of our American spirit. Today, across the country, there will be countless tributes and stories told to remember the events that took place on that fateful day ten years ago but more importantly, today 9 innings will be played in cities across the country because that is the most fitting way that America can celebrate its greatest triumph over terrorism, fear and the deliberate attempts to destroy our spirit.
The 2011 pennant race will soon be heating up and although things appear to be relatively quiet, there are definitely some headline stories to keep an eye on as we head down the stretch. Here's a summary of a few of the biggest baseball stories heading into September:
The Battle for the AL East
The Red Sox lead the Yankees by a half game in the AL East, setting the stage for another epic battle between the Sawks and Yanks. Their remaining schedules are very similar - both teams will play 13 of their remaining 26 games at home. For the Sox, 23 of those 26 games will be against divisional opponents with their only non-division opponent coming up this weekend; a three-game series at home against the Rangers. The Yankees will play the Angels and Mariners for 3 games each and the rest of their games are against foes from the AL East.
This race will all come down to a critical three-game series at New York September 23-25. The winner of that series will more than likely have a huge impact on determining who wins the AL East. Regardless, it appears as though both teams will be heading into the postseason (right now, the Yankees have an 8.5 game advantage in the wild card race).
There are just about 40 games to go in the 2011 season, and a playoff picture is starting to take shape. Currently, there are only three tightly contested divisions in baseball - the NL West, The AL East, and the AL Central. In all liklihood, 2nd place in the AL East is taking the Wild Card. All other division leaders hold at least 6 game lead at this point, although nothing is a given just ask my Mets. Given the state of the pennant races, we focus on pitching staffs in this breakdown, and we couldn't agree on everything. These are my picks, and I'll tell you the places my colleagues and I agreed upon. Starting with the American League.
5. Cleveland Indians
Standouts - Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin
Inconsistent - Ubaldo Jimenez, Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco
The Tribe are in the thick of a pennant race in the Central, and NOBODY would have picked that at the start of the season. They've benefited from solid play from hitters and better than average pitching. They also have benefited from a relatively weak division (they'd be 5th in AL East and 3rd in AL West). We were in agreement that the Indians staff is weakest among playoff contenders. They made a great trade to grab Jimenez. The fire-balling righty can look like the greatest pitcher of his generation on some days, and look terrible on others. The Indians staff is largley untested in a stretch run situation, let alone playoffs. Inexperience could be a detriment to their run.
Jim Thome belted his 600th home run last night, etching his name in the elite 600 home run club. He became just the eighth player to amass 600 home runs and he did it in fashion, becoming the first player in Major League history to hit his 599th and 600th home runs in the same game. He also gave us the quote of the night during his post-game press conference when he showed what has endeared him to so many fans in so many cities throughout his long career. Wearing his emotions on his sleeve, he said, "I mean, 600 homers, how could you ever imagine that?"
Typical Thome - always genuine, always humble and rarely seen without a smile on his face.
I'm going to re-post an article that we ran on Thome and his credentials. In my opinion, he's a sure thing hall of famer and I would vote for him on his first ballot attempt. He did it with class, he did it with humility and he did it without ever being linked to a performance enhancing drug. He was overshadowed by some big name sluggers who turned out to be cheating; take steroids out of the equation and I think we would have a better appreciation for the feats of Jim Thome. Check out the original post on Thome below:
Jim Thome Post
It might be absolutely nothing but then again, last night's loss to the Washington Nationals coupled with a very odd chain of events leads me to speculate that there could be a big story brewing. Judging by the way they handled last nights game and comments made by Charlie Manuel in the post-game press conference, I speculate that the Phillies might be a little bit concerned with the health and conditioning of their third ace, Cole Hamels.
Hamels' fastball is typically in the low 90's, sometimes touching 94. Last night, Hamels didn't touch 90. Consistently hitting 88, his velocity was down and his control was off as he walked more batters last night than any other start this season.
Obviously, reduced velocity in and of itself is not enough to sound the alarms but when Charlie Manuel uses the words, "shoulder stiffness" in his press conference, that is surely something that raises eyebrows. There are certain words and phrases which cause pitchers to cringe- shoulder stiffness, elbow inflammation and reduced velocity are not too far behind Tommy John and Dr. Andrews. Charlie is a tell it like it is kind of guy but I can't imagine him uttering those words haphazardly.
Again, this is purely speculation but two other things that seemed odd to me could conceivably be connected to this possible issue. First, an odd pre-game press conference by Ruben Amaro which was supposedly being called to update the media on the status of Placido Polaco turned out to be completely unrevealing. Amaro might as well stood up there and told us the weather. In hindsight, I wonder whether it could have been precautionary; in the event that they would have to scratch Hamels last minute. There's also the sheer fact that they had Kendrick up very early despite the fact that Hamels had only allowed three earned runs. The careful nature with which they handled his innings tells me that they knew heading into the game that something might not have been right.
Finally, the team as a whole was flat. Rollins was caught not busting it out of the box in the early going and it just seemed like they were all anticipating something awful. I know it's a stretch and hopefully I'm wrong but if there is somthing wrong with Cole Hamels, it would be a devastating blow to a team that has seemed almost unbeatable.
The Rangers are one of the hottest teams in baseball and yet their pitching often gets overlooked. If I asked fans outside of Texas who the 'ace' of the Rangers staff was, I'm not sure if the majority of fans would be able to name C.J. Wilson. But make no mistake, Wilson is a bona fide ace and when he enters free agency this offseason, the potential suitors will be lined up. I'll try to come up with a reasonable value for this enigmatic starting pitcher and list some potential landing spots.
2011 free agent contracts used to gauge his value
Hiroki Kuroda, Jorge de la Rosa and Cliff Lee
I started with the biggest free agent contract signed in 2010, Cliff Lee, and worked my way back to a couple more reasonable deals to figure out what Wilson might be worth. Lee earned his six-year mega-deal (worth about $24 million per year) by posting some of the most ridiculous postseason numbers in baseball history. For his postseason career, Lee is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA. Lee also has a Cy Young and GM's had been watching his peripheral numbers trending in the right direction since his 22-3 campaign in 2008. In short, all of the indicators pointed to continued success.
De La Rosa (31), like Wilson, was dealt the unfavorable hand of pitching in a notorious hitters' park. While De La Rosa had not pulled together back to back great seasons before signing his three-year deal worth about $10 million per year, his peripheral numbers (mainly his high strikeout rate) and his 16 win campaign in 2009 made him a high-reward arm that the Rockies felt could be a nice compliment to Ubaldo Jimenez (before they traded him away).
Hiroki Kuroda (36) is a bit older than Wilson but their numbers and circumstances are similar enough that I felt compelled to compare the two. Kuroda signed a one-year deal before this season worth about $12 million. The prior three seasons, he was under contract for about the same amount (a three-year deal which Kuroda signed when he debuted in 2008). Kuroda might have been able to land a bigger deal on the open market but he felt compelled to stay in Los Angeles. Hiroki's career 3.46 ERA has earned him a reputation for being consistent, when healthy.
This year's trade deadline proved to be very exciting. The aftermath, somewhat like a game of Yahtzee, has left us looking at the deals that shook out pondering what to make of it all. Here's our take on this busy trade deadline.
Going for it now... Winners
Cleveland Indians
Early on, the Indians added Kosuke Fukudome to plug the hole in their outfield that was created by the recent injuries to Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo. The price for Fukudome was a couple of middling prospects. It's a low-risk, middle reward type of move that was largely anticipated. It was the next move they made that sent shockwaves through the MLB landscape. Despite heavy rumors that the Yankees and Red Sox were 'in' on Ubaldo Jimenez, it was the Cleveland Indians that ended up taking the prize of the 2011 Trade Market. The price for Jimenez was steep (four prospects in total, including two very good pitching prospects) but the Indians added a young and uber-talented pitcher whom they will control for three more years. Ubaldo has marketability and a high ceiling - he needs refine and consistency but he has put up very good numbers in his young career in a ballpark that eats pitchers for breakfast. One way or another, we will likely look back at this trade and say, "Remember when the Indians traded four prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez?" For now, I would say that the Indians have made a decent statement that they're not backing down.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Did I mention that I love this time of year? This is the time of year when every armchair GM comes out of the woodwork to make his or her predictions... guilty as charged. I love to analyze and project value and I take pride in my due diligence. I'm going to take some time over the next few weeks to analyze some of the biggest names out there in the upcoming free agent class of 2012. I'll give you an idea of what these players might be worth on the open market and which teams might be interested in pursuing their services.
Today, I'll take a look at Jimmy Rollins and his upcoming free agency.
2011 free agent contracts used to gauge his value:
- J.J. Hardy and Derek Jeter.
In the past off season, JJ Hardy signed a three-year $22 million and Jeter signed his deal worth, on average, $16 million per year for the first three years with an $8 million option in the final year (with incentives that could bring that final year up to $17 million).
How do they compare on the field:
Hardy and Rollins have very similar offensive and defensive numbers... Hardy has a little more pop but 0 stolen bases. Hardy is also a few years younger and still in his peak years while Rollins' numbers have been on the decline, with the exception of this contract year and he has spent considerable time on the DL over the past couple of seasons. Jeter, on the other hand, is Derek Jeter... he's a few years older and overpaid but he's rightfully overpaid because of his name and what that name is worth to the Yankees franchise. I would say that their numbers are very similar; Jeter has a career OPS of .832 versus Rollins' .761. While OPS strongly favors Jeter, Rollins has averaged only 8 fewer RBI and 11 fewer runs over the course of his career while stealing 14 more bases and playing better defense (that comment might draw ire from some but I feel confident in saying that).
Besides the postseason, this is probably my favorite segment of the baseball season. A lot is learned about contenders and pretenders between the all-star break and the July 31st trade deadline. Teams that are serious about making a run will almost always find a piece or two to compliment their current roster and top prospects start getting pegged to be late season roster additions for the stretch run.
This year's trade deadline has emerged as one of the most interesting in recent memory; what makes it so exciting is that there are so many teams still in contention. Teams like the Pirates and Indians have played their way into the spotlight (I guess they didn't get the memo that their residence was supposed to be in the basement), leaving the NL Central and AL Central divisions largely up for grabs. The NL West is always a dogfight and realistically there are three teams with a legitimate shot at taking that division. With all of the teams in the hunt, the trade market is ripe with buyers and somewhat light on sellers. That being said, there are some clear cut sellers with pieces to move which makes predicting landing spots for potential trade bait very difficult... but we like a challenge.
In this market, there are motivated buyers/sellers and there are some window shoppers and unmotivated sellers. Your motivated buyers have real needs and the willingness/ability to move the pieces and spend the money necessary to meet those needs. Motivated sellers have pieces to move and ecomonic forces necessitating a move. Unmotivated sellers have pieces but aren't likely to move unless a deal is right. Here's our take on this market and what teams might do to fill their needs.
MOTIVATED BUYERS AND THEIR NEEDS:
As it stands this very minute, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in a tie for first place in the National League Central. Yes, those Pittsburgh Pirates that haven't had a winning season over .500 since 1992. They're in first place. This Buccos team has seemingly come out of nowhere this year to surprise just about everyone. So, how have they managed to not only stay in the hunt, but lead the pack? Simple, they have scored more runs than they've allowed. In the lineup, the Pirates are getting big numbers from Andrew McCutchen (.290, 14 HR, 56, RBI, 15 SB) who is making a case for best NL center fielder according to my colleague OCP. Other big time contributors include Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and Garrett Jones.
